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FY24 to 4,100 crore in FY25, and further to 2,830 crore as of May this fiscal year. Revenue from the tier fell from Tk 22,890 crore in FY24 to Tk 15,320 crore over the same period.

Smokers have increasingly shifted to medium-tier cigarettes. That tier accounted for just 7 percent of all cigarettes sold in FY22. In FY26, its share has since risen to 42 percent as of May. Low-tier share fell from 77 percent to 49 percent during the same period.

Despite the volume decline, total tobacco revenue has risen each year -- from below Tk 30,000 crore in FY21 to around Tk 45,000 crore in FY26 with a month still remaining.

Anti-tobacco campaigners and economists at the event renewed calls for an outright ban on e-cigarettes and other emerging tobacco products, warning that their growing availability could fuel nicotine addiction, particularly among the youth.

Hassan said the BNP government has reversed a ban on emerging tobacco products such as e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches, and is instead pursuing taxation of these items. The budget proposes a 40 percent supplementary duty on nicotine pouches and 67 percent on heated tobacco products.

Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of PPRC, said some price adjustments in the proposed budget appear disconnected from market realities.

“When tax decisions become trapped in decimal-point calculations rather than reflecting actual market conditions, the policy impact remains limited and valuable revenue opportunities are lost,” he said.

Prof Shafiun N Shimul, director of the Institute of Health Economics, said Bangladesh has a large tobacco market with around 70 billion cigarette sticks sold annually, and that despite successive price hikes, smoking prevalence has not declined at the expected pace.

A significant share of price increases continues to be captured by tobacco companies rather than the government, he added.

SM Abdullah, associate professor at the University of Dhaka’s Department of Economics, said the proposed budget signals a shift from curative to preventive healthcare, but achieving that goal will require a stronger and more effective tobacco tax policy.

Prof Syed Akram Hussain, chairman of the Clinical Oncology Department at Bangladesh Medical University, said tobacco consumption is responsible for around 30 percent of cancer cases in the country and is linked to many other major non-communicable diseases, and called on the government to take stronger measures to curb tobacco use.

The PPRC welcomed the budget’s proposal to impose a 300 percent supplementary duty on acetate tow and filter rods -- two raw materials used in cigarette filter production that currently carry no supplementary duty -- and also cited the raising of the premium-tier minimum retail price to Tk 210 per 10 sticks as a step in the right direction.