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foreign currency reserves may gradually increase in the future,” said a budget projection report of the finance ministry.

However, risks remain.

If the ongoing Middle East crisis prolongs, the resulting energy security crisis could increase import costs, putting pressure on reserves, the report said.

The import growth target for fiscal 2026-27 has been set at 8.8 percent, export at 8 percent and remittance growth at 15 percent.

In the first nine months of the fiscal year, an average of 89,870 workers went abroad each month, compared to 85,340 workers a year earlier.

However, in February and March, overseas worker migration slowed somewhat. War-related situations may also pose challenges for remittance inflows.

The current encouraging remittance growth, improvements in the balance of payments, exchange rate stability, positive discussions with development partners, and continued budget support will boost reserves, said a finance ministry official on the condition of anonymity.

The latest discussions with the IMF are progressing positively.

The government and IMF have agreed to exit the old $5.5 billion programme and adopt a new programme worth $5-6 billion.

“This positive progress means that in the next fiscal year, Bangladesh could receive more than $1 billion in budget support from the IMF. Additionally, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and other development partners may provide $2-3 billion in budget support,” the official said.

Although this will increase interest payment expenses and future debt burdens, it will directly contribute to reserve growth, he added.