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FY25, increasing rollover and debt-servicing pressures amid weak revenue collection and a bank-dominated investor base. External debt made up the remaining 44.4 percent.

The report said external debt remained largely concessional and below solvency thresholds, although risks have increased following downward revisions to export data for FY2023 and FY2024.

Rising domestic borrowing is also increasing debt service-to-revenue pressures and strengthening sovereign-bank linkages, amplifying crowding-out risks for private sector credit and contingent liabilities, the ADB said.

Stress tests showed that disaster-related shocks pose the biggest long-term threat to Bangladesh’s debt sustainability.

Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio stood at 7.5 percent, constrained by weak compliance systems, fragmented administration and heavy reliance on manual processes.

Although reforms such as the Income Tax Act 2023 and expanded digital tax services have been introduced, the ADB said tax administration still relies heavily on manual systems and fragmented databases. Revenue collection often falls more than 15 percent short of targets because of unrealistic projections and institutional weaknesses.

The report also highlighted weaknesses in debt management systems and warned that state-owned enterprises are creating additional fiscal risks as liabilities and government guarantees continue to rise.

The lender said these vulnerabilities are increasing Bangladesh’s overall fiscal risk exposure at a critical stage of its economic transition.