REUTERS, London

Global oil supply will not meet total ‌demand this year as the Iran war wreaks havoc on Middle East oil production, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.

The US and Israel’s war with Iran, subsequent damage to Iran and its Gulf neighbours’ oil infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz ​have caused the largest oil supply crisis in history, sending oil prices skyrocketing.

“Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June,” the Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as ​6 million bpd.

The IEA’s base-case forecast is for a gradual resumption of traffic through the strait from the third quarter onwards, it ​said, which could see the market return to a “modest surplus” by the fourth quarter, allowing depleted stocks to begin to rebuild.

Supply losses led to a ‌246 million barrel drawdown in global oil inventories in March and April, the IEA said, which could increase price volatility ahead of the peak summer demand period.