SOHEL PARVEZ,
from Samarkand
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected that oil prices will average $96 per barrel in 2026 -- well above the pre-war average of $69 -- as key infrastructure has been damaged and, despite the ceasefire in the Middle East, transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed.
Prices may moderate to $80 on average in 2027, according to an updated ADB analysis on the impact of the Middle East conflict on Asia and the Pacific, released yesterday.
Fertiliser prices -- especially those of urea, a key crop nutrient -- have also shot up, fuelling inflationary expectations and increasing fiscal pressure on nations, particularly energy- and fertiliser-importing ones like Bangladesh.
The multilateral lender has lowered its 2026 growth projections for developing Asia and the Pacific, saying the conflict has proved far more disruptive than its early stabilisation scenarios suggested.
Regional GDP growth is now forecast at 4.7 percent, a 0.4 percentage-point drop, while the inflation estimate has been raised by 1.6 percentage points to 5.2 percent.
“Transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely impaired despite the April ceasefire. Physical damage to energy facilities across the Gulf will prolong supply disruptions beyond the end of the conflict -- with some repairs expected to take three to five years,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park.
“A new reference scenario incorporating persistent supply constraints points to materially slower growth and higher inflation; a severe downside scenario implies substantially larger impacts,” he said at a media briefing on the sidelines of the ADB Annual Meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.
The four-day event concluded yesterday with ADB President Masato Kanda terming the conference a success at the closing ceremony.
Park said impacts depend on imported energy dependency, fertiliser import exposure, and other economy-specific factors. Across subregions, the largest 2026 growth downgrades have occurred in South Asia, the Pacific, and developing Southeast Asia.