The world is going through times of high climatic insecurity, exacerbated by unchecked global warming. Low-lying countries, such as Bangladesh, find themselves to be especially susceptible to cyclones, floods, river erosion, and more. In Moulvibazar, recent heavy rainfall has caused flooding, leading to irrecoverable crop losses. Although timely adaptive measures have made Bangladesh adept at cyclone precautions, rescue efforts, and makeshift shelters, early warning and response systems for floods have continued to fall short of expectations. According to a World Bank report in 2020, Bangladesh tops the list of flood-prone countries globally, with an estimated 20 percent of its land area vulnerable to submergence. Additionally, around 60 percent of the country’s population is exposed to high flood risk, more so than in any other country in the world besides the Netherlands.

The population density in Bangladesh is 1,319 per square kilometre, and as per the World Bank’s April 2026 Bangladesh Development Update, the country’s poverty rate increased to 21.4 percent in 2025 from 18.7 percent in 2022, adding 14 lakh more poor people in 2025. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s Human Capital Index score of 0.46 reflects gaps in education, healthcare, and skills, which also limit communities’ adaptation capacity.

The northern areas of Bangladesh, such as Gaibandha, Kurigram, and Chilmari, are in close proximity to major rivers such as Brahmaputra, Teesta, and Jamuna. In 2022, the north and north-eastern regions of Bangladesh were hit by unprecedented flooding, leading to the loss of 12 lives and impacting more than 70 lakh people.

In 2024, flash floods in the country’s east destroyed 339,382 hectares of crops and displaced over 500,000 people. According to a 2021 World Bank report, annual losses incurred by floods in Bangladesh amount to around $2 billion.

Despite extensive data on the issue, early warning systems are still not intensive or community-centric. As of now, demarcated gauge lines, handled by the water resource authorities, are in place to measure dangerous levels of water flow. When water levels threaten to reach or cross these lines, a warning goes out to state that flooding is possible in surrounding areas. What often goes unnoticed, however, is that these installations are sometimes quite far from the villages. Due to topographical diversity, there is hardly a way to discern when and at what speed the water level will hit the villages, located some distance away from the water level gauges. In Bangladesh, hydrological models for an effective early warning system suffer from a lack of upstream data.

According to one study including respondents from Sirajganj district, during 2015-2020, 71.81 percent of households didn’t receive an early warning for flooding. Of the 28.29 percent which received early warning, 82.99 percent households responded by taking preparedness measures.

While early warnings are provided over radio and speaker announcements on regional and union scales, confirmed information on a community or village level is still out of reach. Simply calling for evacuation is often not enough. The ultra-poor residents of these areas spend years saving up for their homes, fields, and livestock. When they hear of a possible evacuation plan, they think of all the losses that await them. Savings and assets go underwater, and they become aid-dependent. However, when aid is discontinued, they do not have any source of income left. Even loans are hard to come by without any assets to show. More often than not, these victims are confused or in denial as to whether evacuation is indeed required.

Decentralising early warning systems

A 2019 United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) report stated that investment in early warning systems could yield a tenfold return and help avoid losses, save lives, and enhance socioeconomic resilience.

We need to look at our early warning systems through a tech-forward lens. Incoming cyclones or floods should be trackable using mobile phones, satellite images, and waterflow systems. Villages can be assigned colours to signal levels of danger and safety. Each union has a local government information centre that could serve as an early warning hub for that community.

Instead of waiting to distribute aid during floods, disaster risk financing can be pushed for and demanded early on. This will not only reduce pressure on post-disaster aid but also help people innovate their own solutions to deal with the crisis.

Effective multi-hazard early warning systems

Multi-hazard early warning systems are only effective if they actually reach and are actionable by those who need them. Early warning systems convey critical information on potentially hazardous events and can yield the highest benefit-cost ratio of any adaptation investment. As per a 2019 report by the Global Commission on Adaptation, a 24-hour warning for an imminent storm or heatwave can cut the resulting damage by 30 percent, and spending $800 million on such systems in developing countries would avoid losses of $3-$16 billion per year.

It is evidenced that loss of life can be reduced if there is better uptake and understanding of necessary actions, as well as better flood forecasting.

A community-based approach is cheaper than a centralised system. While a central system is crucial, balancing the approach with people’s engagement and the best technology available can make it all the more beneficial.

An effective multi-hazard community-based early warning system with engagement from the community, civil society and private sector is needed. Finally, the benefits will accrue only if early warnings lead to early action, which can very much depend on the credibility and available lead time of the warning information.