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85-90 percent this time. However, two new parties -- the Indian Secular Front and the Am Janata Unnayan Party of Murshidabad -- drew away a portion of this support, weakening the Trinamool’s base. Their full impact will be clearer once final vote shares are available.

Then there is the Hindu vote. Securing around 55 percent typically puts a party within reach of victory. Based on seats won and leads, analysts believe the BJP may have secured 60-65 percent, or more.

At the same time, the BJP’s victory opens up new possibilities while raising concerns. One key question is how a party rooted in northern India will adapt to West Bengal’s intellectual and cultural landscape.

Another issue is demographic: around 30 percent of the state’s population is Muslim, and how a Hindu nationalist party like the BJP engages with this community remains uncertain.

Organisational depth remains a challenge. For decades, West Bengal has been a bastion of centrist and left-of-centre politics, and it remains to be seen how the BJP will consolidate its position.

There is also a regional dimension involving Bangladesh. The two share a 2,000-kilometre border, and the election outcome could affect bilateral ties, particularly on issues such as border management and alleged infiltration.

It would be wrong to view the BJP’s rise as a short-term phenomenon. The party has worked on a long-term strategy over the past three to four years, much of it behind the scenes, and that effort is now yielding results.

Strong anti-incumbency also played a role. The Trinamool has been in power for 15 years and has faced serious corruption allegations. Internal divisions have further weakened the party, which the BJP has exploited.

Another factor is the BJP’s promise to double allowances under Mamata Banerjee’s government, a pledge that resonated strongly in rural areas. A four-member household receiving Rs 6,000 would get Rs 12,000 under the BJP -- a significant incentive in remote regions.

In addition, around 2.7 million “outsiders” were removed from voter rolls through the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) process, a move believed to have benefited the BJP.

The party also adjusted its candidate strategy, largely fielding local faces instead of outsiders. In previous elections, it nominated defectors from the Trinamool, which did not resonate with voters. This time, it appears to have learned from that approach.The TMC’s reliance on the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), a consultancy handling surveys and strategy, also backfired. The firm was once led by Prashant Kishor, whose guidance had helped the party make significant gains. With his exit, however, the party’s overdependence on I-PAC appears to have cost it dearly.

The biggest question now is who will be the next chief minister.

After defeating Mamata in her stronghold, Bhabanipur, Suvendu Adhikari is seen as the frontrunner.

Other names in contention include state BJP president Shamik Bhattacharya, former state president Dilip Ghosh, Sukanta Majumdar, and former journalist and Rajya Sabha member Swapan Dasgupta. There is also speculation that the BJP may opt for a less prominent figure, as it has done in the past.

(Suvojit Bagchi works for Prothom Alo)