FROM PAGE B1

It attributed lower Boro yields partly to disrupted irrigation and fertiliser use, caused by fuel and fertiliser shortages linked to the Middle East conflict.

Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam Khan estimated that Boro production could decline by as much as 20 percent in haor regions and 10 percent nationally, citing fertiliser shortages, rainfall, and upstream flooding.

PRICE OUTLOOK

Whether production losses will translate into broader price increases remains an open question.

Major producing regions — Naogaon, Rajshahi, Natore, Bogra, and Joypurhat — have only recently started harvesting.

A clearer picture will emerge in the next 10 to 15 days, said Nirod Baran Saha, president of the Paddy and Rice Stockists and Wholesalers’ Association in Naogaon.

“If the crop performs well in these northern regions, it could offset the losses in the Haor area and have a stabilising effect on the overall market,” he said. “It will be possible to understand the real market impact only after the harvest is largely completed. At this stage, it is not appropriate to draw conclusions.”

DAE’s director of field services Md Obaidur Rahman Mondol said that two or three days of dry conditions would be enough to keep remaining crops out of danger.

Md Moniruzzaman, director of procurement at the Directorate General of Food, also said he does not expect damage to be very high or to have a significant market impact.

Abdul Bayes, former vice-chancellor and economics professor at Jahangirnagar University, noted that this year’s rain-induced damage is expected to have only a marginal effect on national prices.

The government’s existing stock of about 13 lakh tonnes should help prevent major market fluctuations, he added.

He also noted that the pressure will be felt most acutely in the haor districts themselves, where Boro is the sole crop.

The professor explained that affected farmers may have to turn to the market for their own rice needs – creating localised demand pressure even if the national picture holds.

The government has begun responding. On April 29, a high-level meeting chaired by Food Secretary Abu Taher Md Masud Rana decided to allow farmers to use private rice mills and government warehouses to dry their paddy with departmental support.

The Directorate General of Food will procure the dried paddy directly, Moniruzzaman said. Millers are also being encouraged to quickly purchase paddy so the government can maximise procurement while sustaining mill operations, he said.

Prof Bayes said compensating farmers through a fixed procurement price is necessary.

Ensuring farmers can sell their grain without corruption, harassment, or insecurity should be a priority, he added.