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Eastern, as the industry switches to dual-fuel vessels that can run on LNG.

WAR COMPLICATES OUTLOOK

The Iran war, however, presents conflicting signals for LNG shipping. Supply disruptions are pushing Asian LNG buyers towards alternative sources like Atlantic basin supply, increasing travel distances for ships. It could also boost demand for LNG projects elsewhere, lifting overall demand for more carriers, said Wood Mackenzie’s Carson.

But on the other hand, the war has also ​disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz and sidelined 12.8 mtpa of Qatari capacity for three to five years, which could curb shipping demand and weigh on freight rates at a time where an “avalanche” of ship supply is already coming, he said.

Qatar, which operates over 100 LNGCs, will add 70-80 new builds over the next ​3-4 years while the UAE’s ADNOC is expected to double its fleet to 18 within 36 months, said Carson.

“Most of these ​new build vessels were earmarked to serve under-construction LNG projects that are now facing delays,” he said.

“The longer those delays persist, the more likely it is that these ships are offered to the market on sublet arrangements -softening rates considerably.”

Poten & Partners and Drewry expect a record 90-100 LNGCs to be delivered this year, up from 79 in 2025.

However, Drewry’s Negi said seven of nine LNGCs initially scheduled ​for delivery this year and now pushed back to 2027-28 are linked to QatarEnergy.

Poten & Partners senior ​LNG analyst Irwin Yeo said some firms may delay placing big new build orders due to uncertainties triggered by the war.

“Market uncertainty and rising shipbuilding costs, including labour and raw materials amid the current Middle ​East crisis could deter some from placing orders.”