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PDB’s summer plan projects up to 5,130MW from gas and 5,700MW from coal during peak hours.

Three coal plants under maintenance or facing shortages are expected to raise output by early May. This is likely to make coal’s dominance regular.

Badrul Imam, honorary professor at Dhaka University’s Department of Geology, said the country’s increasing dependence on imported LNG and coal is the cumulative result of years of weak focus on domestic gas exploration, development, and production.

“The country historically relied on its own indigenous gas resources, which had long supported power generation at relatively low cost, but insufficient investment and policy attention gradually pushed the energy sector toward imported fuels,” he told The Daily Star.

“Imported LNG is expensive, while coal carries environmental costs despite being relatively cheaper than LNG in some cases,” he said.

“The current situation, where coal-based generation has overtaken gas-fired power generation, should be seen as the consequence of failing to adequately explore and develop local gas reserves over many years.

Imam also said Bangladesh still has significant hydrocarbon potential, but exploration requires sustained policy commitment, investment, and technical effort.

CHEAPER FUEL

In FY 2024-25, gas-fired electricity cost Tk 7.09 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), coal Tk 13.20 kWh, and liquid fuel Tk 27.39 kWh, PDB data shows.

Experts said gas costs are calculated using domestic prices, while LNG imports now meet much of the demand.

So, when LNG import costs are factored in, the price of power from gas should be much higher than what PDB data showed, they said.

Data from the country’s lone state-owned gas supplier Petrobangla shows it supplied 2,614 million cubic feet of gas (MMcf) yesterday, including 935 MMcf from imported LNG. The power sector received 942MMcf.

Prof M Tamim, vice chancellor of Independent University, Bangladesh, said maximising power production from coal is a strategic necessity for Bangladesh in the short term.

The primary driver for this is cost, as coal remains significantly cheaper than LNG and liquid fuels, he said.

“Despite often being criticised as a dirty fuel, coal must remain the backbone of the country’s baseload supply until renewable energy or alternative fuels can be deployed at scale,” he added.

Baseload electricity is the minimum amount of electric power that must be supplied to a grid 24/7 to meet constant demand.

Several large coal-fired plants in the country, including Payra, Rampal, and SS Power, along with supplier Adani in India, are now crucial for Bangladesh’s baseload electricity generation.

The change in fuel mix in the country’s power sector comes at a time when globally, except in Asia, countries are depending more on renewables than coal for electricity generation.

According to London-based think tank Ember, renewables accounted for around 34 percent of global electricity generation in 2025, surpassing coal’s share for the first time in modern history.

Power production from coal fell by 63 Terawatt-hour globally to 33 percent of global electricity generation last year, marking its first decline since 2020, Ember said in its Global Electricity Review 2026.