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In the last 24 hours, a total of 229 confirmed cases were recorded, the highest since April 2, when DGHS began publishing measles data. Total recorded confirmed cases so far are 4,460.

The DGHS also reported 1,058 suspected cases in the latest daily count, taking the total since March 15 to 30,607. The number of suspected cases in the 24-hour counts has remained above 1,000 since April 18.

As of yesterday, over 3,000 patients with suspected measles were still being treated at hospitals.

HOW LONG MAY THE SITUATION LAST?

An emergency vaccination campaign launched at 30 upazilas on April 5 was supposed to continue until yesterday. After the 30 upazilas, the government launched a month-long special vaccination drive in Dhaka South, Dhaka North, Mymensingh, and Sylhet city corporations on April 12.

Nationwide vaccination started on April 20 and is scheduled to continue in city corporation areas until May 20, and other parts until May 12, a DGHS official said.

Epidemiologist Prof Mahmudur Rahman said that after vaccination is completed in a given area, it takes about two to three weeks to have immunity.

So, a decline may be expected in the high-burden 30 upazilas from the second or third week of May, he said.

“If the vaccination drive runs for a month and you then add another two to three weeks, you might expect to see results.

“But in reality, it will not be uniform, since the campaign is ongoing across the country at different phases,” added Prof Mahmudur, also chairman of the National Verification Committee for Measles and Rubella Elimination.

Prof Mushtuq Husain, a public health expert, also said measles cases are likely to start declining in high-burden areas from the second week of May.

However, the situation in other areas may not change at that time as vaccination there started later, he said, adding that it would have been better if the campaign had been launched simultaneously.

He also said the number of deaths will not start to decline immediately with the fall in cases, as many patients may already have been infected and their condition may deteriorate later.

“It may take another month for deaths to decline, and in that case, a reduction in deaths may be seen in June,” he told this correspondent yesterday.

Prof Mahmudur said that apart from vaccination, the government should conduct a major drive to raise awareness about measles.

He said families should be aware that a child should be placed in isolation whenever he or she catches a fever.

Because measles is highly infectious and can spread four days before and after rashes appear on the body, he explained.

The government has targeted to vaccinate 1.8 crore children from six months to under five years during this campaign. Around 62.7 lakh children were jabbed until April 23, according to the DGHS.

The coverage was 98 percent of the targets till that day, it added.

TESTS, CONFIRMED CASES RISE

Suspected measles samples from across the country are sent to the Institute of Public Health in the capital, but it has been facing a shortage of testing kits.

As the number of tests was low, it was difficult to understand the real measles situation in the country.

Mominur Rahman, director of the institute, said they used to conduct around 250 to 300 tests daily due to the shortage of kits.

The institute increased the number of tests after receiving 60 kits from the World Health Organization recently, he told this correspondent yesterday.

Ninety tests can be carried out with one kit, according to him.

He said the number of confirmed cases has increased as testing has expanded.

He added that a total of 476 samples were tested on Thursday, of which 229 were positive, results that were reported yesterday.

He also said they would receive 100 more kits within two weeks and they would start testing around 700 samples daily from today.

WHO in a report on Thursday said it has assessed the national risk of the ongoing measles outbreak as high, citing continued transmission, a large pool of susceptible children, immunity gaps, and suspected measles-related deaths.

It added that continued spread of the disease is likely unless urgent measures are taken to strengthen surveillance, rapidly detect and respond to cases, and close immunity gaps through an integrated vaccination campaign.