MD MEHEDI HASAN

Bangladesh’s economy is facing renewed pressure from global geopolitical tensions and commodity market disruptions, with risks of elevated inflation, slower growth and mounting fiscal strain, according to Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered.

In an interview with The Daily Star, Robertsen said financial markets appear “overly optimistic” about a swift resolution of the ongoing Gulf tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy supplies.

He added that even if shipping resumes soon, it could take weeks or months for oil, gas and petrochemical supply chains to normalise, prolonging price pressures worldwide.

“Even when the Strait reopens, it will take time for exports to normalise and for supply chains to stabilise,” he said, adding that such shocks typically leave behind persistent economic damage across vulnerable economies.

He explained that governments tend to follow a predictable policy response during commodity crises, starting with subsidies to cushion consumers and businesses, followed by price caps, rationing and, in some cases, more aggressive interventions.

“What we have seen in this crisis is that many economies, particularly in Asia, have moved through all these steps very quickly,” he said, adding that such measures come at a high fiscal cost.

“There will be a negative impact on fiscal balances as governments step in to support their economies,” he added.

Robertsen also flagged rising risks of stagflation -- a combination of high inflation and weak growth, particularly for emerging economies like Bangladesh.

“The inflation impact is immediate in a commodity shock, but the hit to growth comes with a lag,” he said.

Bangladesh has been witnessing persistently high inflation for the last three years.