MD ASADUZ ZAMAN

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) fell short of its nine-month tax collection target by nearly Tk 1 lakh crore, leaving it needing to mobilise over Tk 2.60 lakh crore in the final quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26).

Provisional data released yesterday showed collections of Tk 2.87 lakh crore during July-March, an 11 percent rise year-on-year, but well below the pace required to meet the full-year target of Tk 5.54 lakh crore.

Analysts say it is highly unrealistic to expect that the board will succeed in collecting nearly half of the full-year target in three months.

The board has consistently missed its annual target every year for over a decade. Yet in late November last year, the interim government revised the target upward from Tk 4.99 lakh crore, following strong first-quarter collections.

The revenue weakness is playing out against a deteriorating economic backdrop.

The country’s GDP growth slowed to 3.03 percent in the second quarter of FY26, down from 3.53 percent in the same period last year. Defaulted loans in the banking sector have reached Tk 5.45 lakh crore as of December 2025.

Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury told parliament this month that the tax-to-GDP ratio has fallen from around 11 percent to below 7 percent, and that businesses are “in bad shape.”

More recently, the impact of the US-Israel war on Iran has been draining the state funds as the government was forced to buy fuel oils at high prices. Bangladesh imports about 95 percent of its energy, and state agencies have increasingly been forced onto the volatile spot market.

“The mounting costs are bleeding the exchequer,” the minister said on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington last week, citing nearly $2 billion in additional energy import costs following supply disruptions.

“On top of that, the tax-to-GDP (ratio) is not increasing because of business stress, the businesses are in bad shape,” he said, adding that if businesses do not recover, tax receipts will not improve.

He said the government has sought budget support from development partners and is pursuing structural fixes. It has prepared an action plan targeting a trillion-dollar economy by 2034, built around investment, employment and macroeconomic stability.

Amid consistent revenue shortfall, the government has turned sharply to borrowing. Net deficit financing reached Tk 1.05 lakh crore during July-February, up 67 percent from Tk 63,040 crore in the same period last year. Of that, Tk 88,309 crore came from the banking system.

Zaidi Sattar, chairman of the Policy Research Institute (PRI) and head of the National Taskforce on Tax Restructuring, said fiscal space has effectively closed.

“The gap between current expenditure and revenue means there is little to no surplus available to support development spending,” he said, adding that the Annual Development Programme (ADP) will likely depend almost entirely on deficit financing in the upcoming budget.