REUTERS,
Washington
A US naval blockade of Iran is a major, open-ended military endeavor that could trigger fresh retaliation from Tehran and put tremendous strain on an already fragile ceasefire, experts say.
President Trump, in a social media post after no deal emerged from peace talks this weekend in Islamabad, said the US Navy “will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”
The US military’s Central Command later said the blockade will only apply to ships going to or from Iran, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. It was due to take effect yesterday at 10:00 am in Washington (1400 GMT).
Trump also said US forces would interdict vessels that have paid tolls to Iran, even if those ships are now in international waters. The ultimate goal, Trump said, would be to pressure Iran to end its effective closure of the strait to all but the countries that secure safe passage from Tehran.
If Trump’s strategy succeeds, he would eliminate Iran’s greatest point of leverage in negotiations with the US and clear the strait again for global trade, potentially lowering oil prices. But a blockade, experts say, is an act of war that requires an open-ended commitment of a significant number of warships.
“Trump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long-term,” said Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration now at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The US military has not offered basic details yet about the blockade, including how many US warships will enforce it.
But would the United States be prepared to board and seize — or even damage or sink — ships that try to break the blockade? What if they carry oil for China, a major power, or US partners such as India or South Korea?
And what would Iran do? Retd Admiral Gary Roughead, a former chief of US navy, cautioned that Iran could fire on ships in the Gulf or attack infrastructure of the Gulf states that host US forces.
“I honestly believe that if we begin to do it, that Iran will have some kind of a reaction,” Roughead said. Iran’s threats to shipping caused oil prices to skyrocket by about 50 percent since war broke out on February 28.