REUTERS, Dubai

Nearly six weeks of war in Iran have ended, seemingly, with President Donald Trump claiming victory, but the US-Iran ceasefire locks in a harsh reality: an entrenched, radical government with control over the Strait of Hormuz and a powerful lever over global energy markets and Gulf rivals, analysts say.

The shockwaves have rippled outward, contributing to global economic strains and bringing conflict to Gulf neighbours whose economies depend on stability.

“This war will be remembered as Trump’s grave strategic miscalculation. One whose consequences reshaped the region in unintended ways,” Middle East scholar Fawaz Gerges told Reuters.

Before the war, the Strait was formally treated as an international waterway. Iran monitored it and intermittently intercepted vessels, but it stopped short of asserting outright control.

In the new reality, Tehran has moved from shadowing tankers to effectively dictating terms. It currently functions as de facto gatekeeper of the route. Iran wants to charge ships for safe passage.

Additionally, Iran has demonstrated resilience under sustained attack and retained the capacity to escalate further, projecting influence across multiple fronts and strategic choke points. Its reach extends through Lebanon and Iraq via Hezbollah and Shia militias, and into Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea, leveraging the sphere of influence of its Houthi allies.