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“A rise in fuel prices will eventually lead to an increase in food prices.”

But he stressed that Bangladesh’s underlying trade fundamentals remain sound. While the country has recorded a dip in exports to the United States recently, the broader trajectory of remittances and export growth over the last fiscal year offered a degree of cushion.

Remittance inflows for fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25) reached $30.32 billion, up 26.81 percent year-on-year, and exports grew by 8.58 percent, reaching $48.28 billion.

Ahmed flagged a particular concern around import behaviour during periods of uncertainty. Past episodes have shown that importers tend to accelerate letter of credit (LC) payments, booking early to lock in rates, which amplifies pressure on the dollar at precisely the wrong moment.

On the structural dynamics of the exchange rate, Ahmed also said the forex reserves are under slight pressure, driven in large part by the need to import oil at elevated prices.

“The volatility is mainly stemming from the war. We have to be patient to avoid panicking. This will not last long,” he added.

Bangladesh Bank has so far maintained a buffer. Gross foreign exchange reserves stood at $34.43 billion in the latest available figures, while usable reserves under the IMF’s BPM6 methodology were $29.81 billion.

Since the start of FY26, the central bank has purchased over $5 billion from the interbank market to rebuild reserves, reversing a years-long trend of dollar sales.