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As a result, officials forecast load shedding of around 2,000MW during peak hours, translating into two to three hours of outages nationwide.

For the first time this year, there was 1,000MW of load shedding yesterday. The demand was 14,800MW.

CAPACITY CHARGE BURDEN

Local power plants operate under contracts with the PDB that guarantee a portion of payments to operators regardless of actual electricity generation, ostensibly against their investments.

Inflated capacity charges in these deals have been costing Bangladesh up to $1.5 billion annually, according to a national committee formed during the interim government to review unsolicited contracts signed under the Awami League regime.

The committee warned that unless agreements with at least 41 plants are renegotiated, the country could face about $7.2 billion in excess payments over the remaining life of the deals.

M Shamsul Alam, professor of electrical and electronic engineering at Daffodil University, said the service for which the plants were rented was never fully provided, with contractors and “dealmakers” benefitting at the people’s expense.

He noted that underutilisation of plants is not solely linked to current geopolitical tensions, as coal supply is not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.

“Coal plants were utilised at only 45 percent capacity last year, though they were designed to run at 90 percent as baseload plants are designed to run continuously. If those plants operated properly, we could save Tk 25,000 to 30,000 crore annually by not having to buy liquid fuel,” he said.

GAS SHORTAGE

The country requires around 3,825 MMcf/d of gas to meet the demand for power, industries, fertiliser, domestic consumers and non-grid power.

However, as of yesterday, Petrobangla is supplying 2,650 MMcf/d, with 1,698 MMcf/d from local gas sources and 952 MMcf/d from imported liquified natural gas (LNG).

Domestic gas production has been in decline since 2018, when the local production was around 2,500 MMcf/d. Over the last couple of years, the country’s largest producing gas field, Bibiyana, has been producing less and less due to dwindling reserves.

COAL SCENARIO

The PDB expects around 5,700MW of power from coal‑fired plants. The country has installed 6,203MW capacity across seven plants, alongside an agreement with Adani Power (Jharkhand, India) Ltd to import 1,496MW.

As of yesterday, official data shows local plants were producing up to 4,100MW, while Adani Power supplied around 750MW.

One of Adani’s two units was shut for maintenance, while the 1,200MW Matarbari plant was generating only 320MW due to coal shortages.

In addition, all three units of the Barapukuria power plant, with a combined capacity of 524MW, were producing just 50MW because of technical issues, the records show.

FURNACE OIL

The country has furnace oil‑based power plants with a capacity of 5,634MW, from which the PDB expects to generate up to 3,500MW this summer.

At the evening peak (9:00pm) yesterday, furnace oil plants produced 2,800MW. These plants are typically operated only during peak hours, as furnace oil is the costliest source of fuel.

The situation is further complicated by mounting dues to power plants. Operators have warned they may not sustain production unless payments are cleared, raising the risk of deeper supply cuts.

RENEWABLES

The country has installed 1,059MW of renewable capacity -- just 3.7 percent of the total -- with solar at 757MW, hydro 230MW and wind 62MW.

The 11 solar plants across the country support only daytime peak hours, providing up to 500MW and easing pressure on furnace oil plants.

The lone hydro facility at Kaptai operates at full capacity only during the monsoon, when water levels are high. During evening peak hours, 80MW is currently available from the hydro plant, with output fluctuating in line with water pressure, data shows.

The country’s sole wind mill in Cox’s Bazar has an installed capacity of 60MW. Since output depends on wind speed, generation under current weather conditions is around 20MW, data also shows.