ASIFUR RAHMAN

The government’s underutilisation of power plants is likely to worsen this summer due to shortages of gas, coal, and furnace oil caused by US-Israel war on Iran and financial constraints.

Around 40 percent of the overall capacity is expected to remain idle during peak demand between 7:00pm and 9:00pm. Gas‑fired plants are likely to be used the least.

Out of the total 12,204 megawatts (MW) of gas‑fired capacity, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (PDB) will be able to use at best 5,200MW, leaving nearly 7,000MW offline.

This means about 60 percent of gas‑fired capacity may remain unutilised throughout the summer, while capacity charges will continue to be paid, according to the PDB’s summer plan.

Even yesterday, at least 17 gas-fired power plants, out of a total of 57, were either not running or producing less than their capacities due to gas shortages.

To fully utilise the country’s gas‑fired power capacity, the PDB requires around 2,524 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMcf/d).

With the overall gas supply now at 2,650 MMcf/d, Petrobangla, the state‑owned supplier, must ration allocations to power plants, industries, fertiliser factories, and homes.

An internal PDB analysis states that it needs at least 1,200 MMcf/d of gas to run power plants during the summer peak projected demand of 18,500MW, provided coal‑fired and furnace oil plants generate expected electricity.

Currently, gas supply to the power sector stands at 900 MMcf/d, allowing PDB to produce up to 5,200MW. The supply may drop further as the government has decided to restart at least two fertiliser factories.

Gas shortages have already forced five of the country’s six fertiliser factories to remain shut since March. The lone running fertiliser factory -- Ghorashal‑Palash Urea factory -- needs 60 MMcf/d. In May, multinational KAFCO is expected to resume operations, requiring another 60 MMcf/d.

The PDB analysis warned that if gas supply to power plants drops to 800 MMcf/d, electricity generation will drop below 4,500MW.

As per the assessment of other fuel-based power plants, PDB expects 5,700MW from the installed coal capacity of 6,203MW and 3,500MW from the installed furnace oil capacity of 5,634MW.

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