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a demand for 15,700MW.

Typically, a 1,000MW shortfall results in one to one and a half hours of nationwide load shedding.

However, past patterns, particularly during the 2022 crisis, suggest a stark urban-rural divide, with outages stretching to three to four hours in rural areas while one to two hours in the capital.

Since early March, when the power minister first warned of possible shortages, up to 500MW of load shedding had been introduced. It eased during the extended Eid holidays due to lower demand, but is now rising again.

The situation is further complicated by mounting dues to furnace oil-based power plants, amounting to around Tk 14,000 crore. Operators have warned they may not sustain production unless payments are cleared, raising the risk of further supply cuts.

Adding to the strain, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has forecast multiple heatwaves in April, with temperatures nearing 40°C, which will likely push electricity demand sharply higher.

BUSINESSES PUSH BACK

At yesterday’s meeting, business leaders urged the government to allow shops to remain open until 8:00pm. The minister rejected the proposal, insisting that the cabinet’s directive to close by 6:00pm must be followed for now.

“Observe the next three months,” he said. “Decisions regarding this directive may be reviewed ahead of Pahela Baishakh and Eid-ul-Azha. But for now, you must comply with the cabinet’s decision.”

He emphasised that the burden of conservation is being shared. Fuel allocation for official transport has been cut by 70 percent, carpooling is being encouraged, and office hours have been shortened. A decision on holding half of the classes online every week at educational institutions is expected today.

“If people know shops close at 6:00pm, they will adjust their shopping habits accordingly, just as they do with bank hours,” the minister argued, adding that proposals would be discussed with the prime minister.

Essential services such as pharmacies and food outlets may remain open under special consideration.

Business leaders, however, argued that markets are being unfairly targeted.

They claimed electricity consumption in many markets is lower than in residential buildings and other institutions, yet businesses face restrictive measures.

They warned that early closures could leave commercial areas dark, increasing security risks, and called instead for targeted action against high-consumption sectors.

Their proposals include keeping shop hours from 11:00am to 8:00pm, and action against illegal electricity connections, particularly unauthorised charging of battery-powered rickshaws.

They suggested restricting fuel supply to high-capacity private vehicles above 1,800–2,000cc, and introducing an odd-even vehicle system -- where vehicles with odd-numbered plates operate on odd-numbered dates, while even-numbered plates operate on even-numbered dates.

They also noted that businesses are still recovering from losses linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, and may struggle to absorb another shock.

Md Helal Uddin, president of Bangladesh Shop Owners’ Association, told The Daily Star that despite their objections, business leaders said they would comply with the 6:00pm closure order while continuing to push for revisions.

According to a source, the minister said, “The government understands the concerns and sentiments of the business community.

“However, the current circumstances have necessitated decisions that apply to everyone.”

FERTLISER SQUEEZE

Gas shortages have already forced five of the country’s six fertiliser factories to remain shut for the past month, raising concerns ahead of irrigation during the Aus season when early summer rice is sown in March-April and harvested in July-August.

Under current plans, the Shahjalal Fertiliser Company Ltd, operational over the past month with around 40MMcfd gas supply, will be shut, while the Ghorashal-Palas Urea factory is set to resume operations this month, requiring about 72MMcfd.

This shift alone could divert an additional 30MMcfd of gas away from the power sector.

From next month, multinational KAFCO is also expected to resume operations, which would require about 60MMcfd of gas for fertiliser production -- further tightening supply for power.

LPG MARKET VOLATILE

The LPG market remains unstable despite repeated price adjustments.

In Dhaka, a 12kg cylinder was selling for no less than Tk 2,000 yesterday, with some retailers charging up to Tk 2,100.

Consumers continue to face difficulties, raising concerns about affordability and supply stability.