ASIFUR RAHMAN

The country stands on the edge of a difficult summer as global tremors from the war on Iran ripple through its energy lifelines, stoking fears of blackouts as heat waves loom.

Despite official assurances, stress in the energy sector is evident: long petrol queues, gas shortages affecting fertiliser output, and a volatile LPG market, even at record-high prices.

In the power sector, the gas supply crunch and disruptions in production at major coal-fired plants have forced officials to forecast load shedding of around 2,000 megawatts (MW) during peak hours, which could translate into two to three hours of outages nationwide.

In response, the government is weighing a slew of measures to reduce electricity consumption, particularly during evening peak hours.

Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has called for public cooperation as a series of high-level meetings continues to assess the evolving situation.

Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood Tuku yesterday hinted at imminent power cuts during a meeting with leaders of the Bangladesh Shop Owners’ Association at the Bidyut Bhaban to discuss a directive to close shops by 6:00pm.

According to sources present, the minister said global energy disruptions have squeezed gas supply, dragging down electricity generation and heightening the risk of load shedding.

“Gas supply has fallen, and as a result electricity generation is also declining, increasing the risk of load shedding,” a source quoted him as saying.

Bangladesh’s power generation remains heavily reliant on imported gas, coal, and furnace oil, leaving it exposed to global shocks.

Currently, around 920MMcfd (million cubic feet per day) of gas is being supplied to the power sector, producing about 5,200MW of electricity daily.

However, an internal analysis by the Power Development Board (PDB) suggests if supply drops below 800MMcfd, output could fall under 4,500MW.

Even if other fuel supplies remain stable, total electricity generation would reach around 16,200MW -- well short of the projected peak demand of 18,500MW during April-May, the PDB analysis showed.

“If there is any disruption in fuel supply, the generation plan could fall short. Coal is largely imported, and a portion of gas is also imported, making supply stability crucial,” said Md Zahurul Islam, member (generation) of PDB.

“We may not receive the full 900-950MMcfd of gas that was expected for April-May,” he said, adding that the purchase of LNG from the spot market may help recover some of the shortfall if the shipments arrive on schedule.

He also said that electricity demand will depend on weather conditions as well. “If rainfall continues and temperatures remain moderate, the pressure on the power system may stay manageable.”

As of yesterday, the country received 14,900MW of electricity against

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