STAFF CORRESPONDENT

The ongoing regional conflict could push up to 4 million people in the Middle East into poverty, the United Nations has warned, while Human Rights Watch said migrant workers in the region face growing risks to their safety and livelihoods.

According to a press release from the United Nations Development Programme, a prolonged military escalation in the Gulf countries could deal a major blow to the region’s economy.

The assessment, titled Military Escalation in the Middle East: Economic and Social Implications for the Arab States region, said regional economies could shrink by 3.7 to 6.0 percent of GDP, causing losses of $120 billion to $194 billion.

The report said the economic damage could exceed the region’s total GDP growth recorded in 2025.

It also projected a sharp labour market impact, with unemployment rising by up to 4 percentage points, equivalent to 3.6 million jobs lost, while up to 4 million people could be pushed into poverty.

“This crisis rings alarm bells for countries of the region to fundamentally reevaluate their strategic choices,” said Abdallah Al Dardari, UN assistant secretary-general and director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States at UNDP. He stressed the need for stronger regional cooperation and economic diversification beyond hydrocarbon dependence.

The findings show uneven impacts across sub-regions. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Levant are expected to face the largest GDP losses, ranging from about 5.2 to 8.5 percent, driven by trade disruptions and energy market volatility.

Meanwhile, HRW said millions of migrant workers across the GCC countries are facing heightened risks to their safety and livelihoods due to the ongoing regional conflict.

“Millions of migrant workers employed across the Gulf countries are navigating threats to their physical safety and job security amid the conflict,” said Michael Page, deputy Middle East and North Africa director at HRW.

As of March 25, conflict-related incidents in GCC countries have killed and injured several migrant workers, according to media and official reports.

Among those killed were a Pakistani driver, a Nepali security guard, and Bangladeshi workers in the UAE and Bahrain.

Quoting family members, the New York-based rights body said Saleh Ahmed, a Bangladeshi driver, was killed in Ajman after debris struck his water tanker. Another Bangladeshi, AM Tarek, died in Bahrain after being hit by shrapnel while leaving work.

HRW said many workers have seen sharp drops in income, especially those in commission-based jobs. Workers in several countries, including the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, also reported rising food prices. Some said their monthly food costs had doubled.

The rights body urged the Gulf states to take emergency steps to protect migrant workers, including compensating income losses, ensuring payment of living wages, enforcing employment contracts, and improving access to social security benefits.