MOHAMMAD SUMAN and ASIFUR RAHMAN

Bangladesh’s sole state-owned refinery is operating on critically low crude reserves, raising the prospect of a temporary halt in operations within days, even as shipments await movement through disrupted regional supply lines.

The Eastern Refinery Limited (ERL) held around 30,500 tonnes of usable crude till March 30 -- enough to sustain operations for around six days, according to multiple officials.

Contacted by The Daily Star, a senior ERL official, requesting anonymity, said, “With the current stock, operations can continue until April 6 [with throughput at the installed capacity of 4,500 tonnes per day]. After that, adjustments may be required depending on shipment arrivals.”

To stretch reserves, throughput has already been reduced to about 3,700 tonnes per day, down from the installed capacity. Officials have not yet said how long the reserves might last at the reduced throughput.

Throughput refers to the volume of crude the refinery processes each day, which can be adjusted to extend available reserves.

While the ERL has operated with relative stability since 1968, undergoing periodic “turnarounds” every three to five years, a shutdown triggered by depleted crude stocks would be highly unusual.

The current strain follows delays in two crude shipments totalling 200,000 tonnes from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, originally scheduled for March.

Bangladesh typically imports two crude cargoes a month. However, since the escalation of the US-Israel war on Iran, three shipments have been delayed.

Officials said one cargo has since been loaded and is now in transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s envoy in Bangladesh yesterday indicated that necessary measures would be taken to ensure safe passage of commercial vessels, including those carrying fuel for Bangladesh.

Although shipping through Hormuz remains constrained, limited transit has resumed under controlled conditions.

Even so, the next crude cargo is unlikely to reach the Chattogram port before mid-April, leaving a short gap in the ERL’s supply schedule, according to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) officials.

The ERL processes around 1.5 million tonnes of crude annually -- roughly 125,000 tonnes a month -- producing

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