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said, warning that even short disruptions could lead to supply shortages.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor in the Gulf, carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil and over one-fifth of LNG trade, making it one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Any sustained disruption -- whether due to military conflict, shipping constraints or insurance withdrawal -- could trigger severe supply shocks, higher import costs and inflationary pressure in countries like Bangladesh, said the report titled “Beyond Securing Supply: Chokepoint Risk for Oil and Gas Importers”.

The warning comes at a time when the country’s own energy security remains structurally fragile, with limited refining capacity and a heavy dependence on imported refined fuel.

Despite decades of planning, Bangladesh has yet to build a second refinery unit, forcing it to rely on costly imports instead of processing crude domestically.

Eastern Refinery, the country’s lone refinery, has remained largely unchanged for over six decades, refining only a fraction of national demand, while the rest is met through imports.

Plans for a second unit, first conceived more than a decade ago, have repeatedly stalled due to financing constraints, policy shifts and changing project models, keeping the country locked into import dependence and unable to process anything other than Arabian Light Crude and the Murban.

After Pakistan and Bangladesh, Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Singapore, India, China and the EU depend most on the Strait, with their dependency ranging from 95 percent to 7 percent respectively.

In LNG segment, the most dependent countries are Pakistan and Bangladesh (89 and 71 percent respectively). India imports 53 percent of its LNG through the strait. The other named countries depend between 6-25 percent on that single strait, which is 55 kilometre wide at its narrowest point.

With the Hormuz, two-thirds of global seaborne oil and gas supplies depend on a small number chokepoints including the Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal and Panama Canal.

Global energy markets can appear stable until such chokepoints are disrupted, at which point vulnerabilities become immediately visible through price spikes and supply constraints, the report said.

Bangladesh and Pakistan have previously experienced such shocks, such as the 2022 global gas crisis when rising prices forced them out of the LNG spot market.

Despite expectations of ample global supply in the coming years, the report cautions that structural dependence on a handful of maritime routes leaves import-reliant economies exposed to recurring volatility.

Analysts warn that without diversifying supply routes and expanding domestic refining capacity, the country will remain exposed to recurring crises driven by geopolitical tensions far beyond its borders.