Dr Bashir Saade , lecturer at University of Sterling and author of “Hizbollah and the Politics of Remembrance,” speaks to Ramisa Rob , Geopolitical Insights Editor of The Daily Star about Israeli operations in Lebanon and Middle East, and what strategic victory means for the US and Israel against Iran and Hezbollah.

Can you explain how the geopolitical dynamics changed in the Middle East since October 7, 2023?

There have been major transformations in the rules of the game. The Lebanese government is allied with the US, and has been indirectly bidding for Israel, and pushing to demilitarise Hezbollah. When the US and Israel decided to act on Iran — which was planned for years — it strategically coincided with an Israeli intervention in Lebanon against Hezbollah. The ground invasion in Lebanon, and possibility of boots on the ground in Iran, is most important to follow, in order to understand how this will unfold.

On the internal political front, the US-allied Lebanese government is currently asking for the start of negotiations of peace with Israel, including normalising relations with Israel. Very expectedly, Israel has refused to negotiate for peace with Lebanon. Israel never wanted peace, as it doesn’t suit Israel’s interests.

Since October 7, the US and Israel have decided that the resistance coalition has to be neutralised or eliminated. It is not viable for the US and particularly Israel to have the resistance coalition exist as a political actor. In politics, you either negotiate and recognise the other as an existing actor and try to compromise, or you reach a point where you decide that taking them out with force as such, would have a better outcome. For the US and Israel, the idea is clearly to create some kind of a ground for regime change in Iran, as we’re seeing with targeted killings, so that there is no entity such as the Revolutionary Guard anymore. The regime change entails a US-friendly government in Iran.

Is a US-aligned government a possibility in Iran after this war?

History shows that most regimes, groups, and political actors don’t only survive when they have equal power to the attacking force. They survive through asymmetric means. It is true that Iran and Hezbollah are no match for the US and Israeli army and their technological, military capabilities. But they can fight wars that exhaust Israel and US’ capabilities. So that is what both Iran and Lebanon are continuing to bet on. They are also betting on the paralysis of the world economy, to the Gulf countries, which make up the most important region for wealth accumulation for the world economy. It’s not just because of oil and gas, but also financial markets. Most of the US currency is actually Gulf money. This is why the current war, as labelled by many commentators, is a war of attrition, that bleeds the enemy as much as possible till the enemy feels that they cannot “afford” this anymore.

How long is war on all fronts, sustainable for the US and Israel and Hezbollah and Iran?

There’s talks that Israel is considering the usage of nuclear weapons in Iran, which would be a disaster. Israel is desperate. Iran is huge in land mass and the killing of leaders and top officials cannot lead to quick change. Hezbollah is in a different situation of course, but as long as there is someone hiding behind a mountain or valley in the south of Lebanon, it’s hard to fully eliminate them. Israel is trying to occupy the south of Lebanon; it may succeed, but it is facing fierce resistance. One of the issues with the wars that the US and Israel are waging in the region — even in Gaza with Hamas — is that eliminating resistance groups is not practical. Their enemy is an ideological one, fighting against injustice, occupation and Israel’s machinations which have broken their families. People are not going to go away. If someone is killed in a family, his son will fight, or his cousin will fight — and so on. When the US and Israel become aggressive, it’s a sign of weakness that they’re not succeeding in hitting where they hope to. Even in Gaza, the narrative is that Hamas is decimated. Hamas’ leadership may be gone, but Hamas still exists underground. Their idea as a resistance faction continues to survive. Total destruction of the Gaza Strip has been achieved but is there really a strategic victory for Israel? Something similar may happen to Lebanon. Israel wants to transform the south and parts of Beirut into a new Gaza and colonise.

The only way to deal with such an enemy for the US and Israel is through political compromise, which they don’t wish to do as Hezbollah and the Iranian regime are some of the only ones in the world rejecting US and Israel’s colonial efforts.

Hezbollah and Iran are in it for existential reasons so they will fight until everybody is dead. They don’t care. They’re waiting to die as the martyrdom culture is very strong. From what’s happening recently, it does seem to me that the US is reconsidering. For the war in Lebanon, it’s possible that it would last longer than the one in Iran. The more you corner an arrogant enemy, like the US and Israel, they start using other means of destruction. Israel starts bombing civilian infrastructure. The main doctrine that Israel operates on — which is different to the US — is really spreading terror by calling their enemies “terrorists.” The idea in Lebanon is to create a complete state of disarray, displacement of the people within the country, spreading mayhem and chaos. The strategy here is that spreading terror will lead to a change of heart. It’s partly working, as many Lebanese people are saying, “We know that Israel is a monster, so why should we poke that monster anymore when we’re suffering?” That sort of mentality is dexterously engineered by Israel.

Now, we’re in the last war, really. Maybe it will lead to a partial neutralisation of the resistance coalition. It is set to be a long war, unless something tactically new happens in the next few weeks that would change the rules of the game from existence and survival for Iran and Hezbollah. But there’s a fundamental issue with what the US and Israel view as strategic victory. There’s always been a resistance against Israel historically. There will always be resistance against any form of injustice, even if neutralised now.

What do you make of the “narrative victory” that Trump is trying to paint?

Half of this war is media warfare. There’s been fake reports that Netanyahu died, and fake videos of him, in general. He was alive but he entertained mystery during that period when the false reports were emerging. All of this creates psychological warfare — what we call “psyop.” Essentially, you spread news that will change the way the war is happening, such as one party saying we’ve conquered this part of the area, so the opponent has to shift their plans. Using misinformation to change military strategy is another expertise of Israel, for decades. Iranians are also trying to do the same. But it’s also commentators, influencers and the general public in social media who participate in the large-scale spread of misinformation about the trajectory of the war. Today, we are all involved in warfare with every single video we consume, like, or share. Take Trump’s catchy declarations and slogans for example. They don’t need to mirror any form of reality. But the danger is that they become reality because people start thinking in a certain way.

What about the role of intelligence?

There has been a continuity of antagonism towards Iran in what we call the “deep state,” of the US, across all governments. The intelligence community, I think, are in agreement with Trump over this war. In the case of Hezbollah, it’s even more simple. Hezbollah will always be a US enemy as they attacked US interests in the 80s, and the US never forgets. There’s a documentary on the CIA chasing Hezbollah fighters for years, until the CIA and Mossad killed one of them, Imad Mughniyeh in 2008. This is the mentality of the US and Israeli intelligence community: to chase with force until beating them.

The assassination of leaders is done by intelligence and as we are seeing, Mossad and CIA work relentlessly to penetrate all the resistance groups. But targeting leaders or civilian structures simply does not solve the problem. The resistance will continue in cycles. At some point, if Israel wants to compromise, they have to completely rethink what they’re doing in the region as a political project, which they are not willing to do.

Do you think this war would be a wake-up call for the international community?

There is really no international community anymore. Europe is spineless. The US is captured by radical, pro-Zionist thinking. Meanwhile, the rest of the world — Russia and China, for example — is waiting to see how the empire of the US will slowly crumble. There never was an international system holding it all together. We’re in a more turbulent phase, where Russia has been bogged down in a war in its backyard, and China is in economic warfare with the US. So the Middle East is really the place where the battle is happening, because a project like Israel is a strong, destabilising force that the US empire can use to maintain its stronghold. Israel can be a ruthless criminal willing to do anything, for their survival. Maybe Israeli leaders think if they kill everybody, they can live in peace. But no project historically has survived on a mountain of injustice. Every project like Israel has ended up collapsing. Can we name one tyrant in the history of humanity that didn’t fall eventually?