CNN ONLINE

Almost exactly one month ago, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met indirectly with the Iranians in Geneva as the Trump administration continued to claim diplomacy was its preferred option. Two days later, the US and Israel launched their war against Iran.

Now, the United States is again seeking to return to talks after President Donald Trump’s about face on Monday when he announced the two countries were negotiating an end to the conflict –- but there are significant hurdles on the path back to the negotiating table despite public optimism voiced by the White House.

The specter of continued military action by the US and Israel looms large over potential discussions. Meanwhile, Tehran perceives itself to possess a key tool that it did not have prior to the outbreak of the war: virtual control over the Strait of Hormuz. “The very basics must be agreed on before the two sides board and take off for negotiations,” one regional source, told CNN adding that Iranians have now given “a maximum no to a maximalist offer.”

Earlier this week, the US conveyed, via Pakistan, a 15-point list of demands for Iran. Many of the demands echo those made by the US before the war began: Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, the US taking possession of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and an end of Iran’s support for proxies.

If that is truly the US’ position, “there is no world where there’ll be successful negotiations,” Nate Swanson, a former career US government official who served as director for Iran at the National Security Council, told CNN.

The other key player in the war, Israel, is concerned that the US may declare a one-month ceasefire in order to facilitate negotiations with Iran, two Israeli sources told CNN. However, the country remains skeptical about the prospect of a breakthrough, according to one of the sources.

“The maximum Iran might be willing to give does not meet the minimum the US is demanding,” the source said, adding that Israel views several elements of the US framework as “positive and good for Israel” -– in particular those regarding Iran’s nuclear program and the activities of its regional proxies.

On Wednesday, an Iranian official outlined the country’s own list of demands, according to state-run media outlet Press TV. They include a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations,” establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure the war on Iran does not resume, guaranteed and clearly defined payment of war damages and reparations, an end to military operations across all fronts and for all Iranian proxies throughout the region, and a guarantee that Iran can exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran’s ability to snarl the key waterway, despite US progress degrading Iran’s military capabilities, has caused the price of fuel to skyrocket and set global markets on edge. It is also a potential edge for Iran in future negotiations.

Still, the potential for further US military action is looming. Approximately 1,000 US soldiers with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expecting to deploy in coming days to the Middle East, according to two sources familiar with the matter, adding to the growing military firepower in the region as the Trump administration says it is in talks with Iran to end the conflict.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned Wednesday that if “Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment,” Trump “is prepared to unleash hell.”