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Trading Labuan, declared force majeure due to the war.

Industry insiders say the April outlook appears even more fragile as disruptions persist in key sourcing regions.

Octane supply is emerging as one of the most vulnerable segments.

Bangladesh meets most of its roughly 4,00,000-tonne annual demand through domestic production using crude oil, with the rest sourced from gas-based processing.

But that balance has been disrupted by the absence of recent crude imports.

A scheduled shipment of 1,00,000 tonnes of crude from Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal was delayed earlier this month, while a charter arrangement with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company was cancelled. As a result, no fresh crude shipments are expected this month.

The country’s only refinery, Eastern Refinery Ltd, now holds about 80,000 tonnes of crude -- enough to run the refinery for just 17 to 18 days at the current pace.

With domestic production under pressure, the government plans to import around 25,000 tonnes of octane by the end of next month, an unusual step underscoring growing concern.

The strain was already evident during Eid travel, when many filling stations ran out of octane and, in some cases, petrol. Districts including Munshiganj, Khulna, Bagerhat, Mymensingh, Chattogram, Gazipur, Bogura, Gaibandha, Rajshahi, Natore, and Brahmanbaria reported outages.

Current stock levels offer only limited short-term relief.

Diesel reserves stand at around 1,85,000 tonnes, sufficient for roughly 14 days, while octane stocks of 11,090 tonnes may last about nine days. Petrol stocks of 16,605 tonnes are expected to last around 11 days, according to BPC data.

Furnace oil stocks are relatively higher at 70,833 tonnes -- enough for about 29 days -- while jet fuel reserves of 34,877 tonnes can meet demand for around 23 days.

However, furnace oil figures do not reflect the actual picture, as most furnace-oil power plants import their own fuel.

Bangladesh remains heavily import-dependent. BPC officials warn that any prolonged disruption in global supply chains could quickly erode the existing buffer, putting pressure on power generation, transport, and industrial production.

LONG QUEUES

At the retail level, the strain is already visible.

Panic buying has further intensified the pressure. Supplies at many pumps are exhausted within hours, with some customers attempting to stockpile fuel amid fears of worsening shortages.

Tensions have flared in some areas, with reports of arguments between customers and staffers and law enforcement stepping in to manage crowds. Pump operators also raised safety concerns over handling volatile fuel under such pressure.

In Dhaka, Trust Filling Station on Bijoy Sarani, considered a reliable source, which had been supplying fuel continuously before Eid, ran out of fuel yesterday and the day before.

Motorists faced long waits, with queues stretching up to Jahangir Gate from Bijoy Sarani.

“I waited in line for more than three hours, but in the end I didn’t get a drop of fuel,” said motorcyclist Rafiqul Islam. “It’s really frustrating and makes it hard for people to go about their daily lives.”

Most other filling stations in the Tejgaon and Mohakhali areas also ran dry yesterday.

Across several other districts, many filling stations struggling with long queues continued informal restrictions, citing limited supply, although the government imposed rationing between March 6 and March 15. They resorted to limiting sales to around Tk 300 for motorcycles and Tk 1,500 for cars.

In Khulna, several filling stations ran out of octane and petrol on the first working day after Eid. Motorists reported visiting multiple pumps in vain, while some stations cordoned off dispensing units due to security fears after stocks ran dry.

In Noakhali, customers queued for two to three hours, often receiving less than two litres of fuel. In Munshiganj, many stations displayed “No Octane” signs, while others provided only a fraction of usual supplies. Similar disruptions were reported in Narayanganj.

The situation appears more severe in the north. In Bogura, pumps have begun self-imposed rationing, while in neighbouring Gaibandha several stations shut down temporarily due to stock shortages.

In Thakurgaon, Dinajpur, and Panchagarh, only a handful of stations were operating at times, supplying limited fuel as hundreds of motorcyclists queued for hours.

Pump owners say they are receiving far less fuel than required, often only a fraction of daily demand, forcing them to restrict sales. They also point to a sharp rise in demand following Eid travel and increased agricultural activity during the ongoing Boro harvest.

Syed Sajjadul Karim Kabul, a president of a faction of the Petrol Pump Owners Association, blamed logistical disruptions during the Eid holidays, when depots and banks remained closed, for difficulties in procuring fuel.

“A lack of coordination across the supply chain further complicated the situation,” he said.

Despite the situation on the ground, authorities maintain that there is no overall supply crisis.

Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Iqbal Hassan Mahmood said the disruption is driven mainly by an unexpected surge in demand.

“Earlier, tank lorries would be filled in the morning, and even after selling fuel throughout the day, there would be some surplus,” he told reporters at the Secretariat yesterday. “But now, due to long queues, the fuel runs out quickly.”

He also cited delays in transporting fuel from depots to stations, particularly in the early hours. “There is a shortage in the morning, but fuel becomes available later,” he said.

Urging restraint, the minister asked consumers not to purchase beyond immediate needs. “There is enough fuel. People will get it, but they should not buy more than necessary,” he said.

Officials added that distribution is being calibrated based on previous consumption patterns to prevent hoarding and market manipulation, warning that excess release could allow syndicates to create artificial scarcity.

BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman could not be reached over the phone for the last two days.