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No officials consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran’s government, which currently is buffeted by key personnel losses from ongoing US and Israeli air strikes and is deeply unpopular following a January round of extraordinarily violent repression.

But it is far from likely or even probable in the near term, they said.

Reuters reported earlier that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the Iran attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hard-line clerics, two sources said.

One US official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to voluntarily capitulate in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.

The CIA assessments followed at least one report from a separate US intelligence agency which noted that there had been no IRGC defections during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.

Such defections would likely be a precondition of any successful revolution, according to three additional sources. Those sources requested that the specific intelligence agency not be named.

All of the sources Reuters spoke with for this story requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.

The US intelligence discussions about the implications of a possible Khamenei killing have not been limited to whether it might lead to a change in government leadership.

Two of the US officials said that, since January, there has been significant debate -- but no consensus -- among officials of various agencies about the extent to which Khamenei’s killing would lead to a significant shift in the way Iran approached negotiations with the US regarding its nuclear program.

US officials have also debated the extent to which Khamenei’s death or ouster would deter the country from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capacities, said those officials.

Senior US officials have also become increasingly pessimistic that any opposition figure backed by Washington would realistically be able to control the country, those officials added.