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toward far‑right Islamist groups.

Terming the July charter the administration’s “signature achievement”, the report observes that consensus came with “caveats”. It mentions the fact that the BNP issued “notes of dissent” on nine sections, objecting in particular to proportional representation in a new upper house.

“To overcome divisions, the interim government ordered a referendum to be held alongside the election, ensuring voters themselves would decide on key reforms. Even if the referendum fails, parties will face pressure to implement the proposals they endorsed, meaning some constitutional change is likely regardless of the outcome.”

Meanwhile, Yunus and his cabinet have maintained a fragile consensus among political parties and the army, keeping the transition on track, the report says.

The think tank believes the interim government’s final and most critical task is to deliver credible, peaceful elections on February 12, paving the way for an elected government to take office with a genuine popular mandate for the first time since 2008. It notes the fact that national polls in 2014 and 2024 were boycotted by the opposition, while the 2018 election was marred by allegations of rigging.

“The electoral playing field has, however, shifted dramatically with the absence of the Awami League, whose activities were banned in May 2025.”

The report mentions Hasina’s conviction of crimes against humanity and the death sentence awarded to her in absentia by the ICT in November last year. “Millions of her supporters have effectively been disenfranchised, with thousands detained.”

The contest now centres on two blocs: the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami. The BNP, historically the Awami League’s main rival, retains a wide activist network but has struggled with corruption allegations and internal factionalism, says Crisis Group.

“Its prospects received a boost in late December when Tarique Rahman returned from 17 years of exile in the UK. His homecoming drew large crowds and temporarily silenced critics. Days later, the death of his mother, former prime minister Khaleda Zia, brought Dhaka to a standstill.”

Crisis Group, however, expresses uncertainty over whether Tarique can unify the BNP and appeal to disillusioned younger voters, mentioning in its report the lingering corruption accusations against him from the party’s last stint in power.

Jamaat‑e‑Islami, according to the report, has emerged as a formidable force in the meantime. “Long persecuted under Hasina, it capitalised on the 2024 mass uprising, with its student wing playing a prominent role. Party chief Shafiqur Rahman has become one of the country’s most effective political performers, while Jamaat’s disciplined organisation and strong social media presence have resonated with younger voters.

“Jamaat appears to be gaining popularity among younger people, many of whom are less concerned about its controversial role during the Liberation War in 1971, when it sided with the occupying Pakistani army and its members participated in mass atrocities against civilians.”

Crisis Group believes Jamaat’s alliance with the National Citizen Party (NCP), formed by student leaders of the uprising, has further strengthened its position, though the report notes the internal dissent within the NCP as a result of that partnership, which led to the resignation of some key leaders.

Highlighting recent surveys that suggest the BNP holds a narrow lead, the report says that Jamaat is expected to surpass its previous best performance in 1991, when it won 18 seats with 12 percent of the vote.

Whether the elections proceed smoothly is far from guaranteed, Crisis Group says, adding political violence has historically spiked around competitive polls, and human rights groups have documented a rise in political violence since August 2024. Clashes between BNP and Jamaat supporters have already occurred, while Awami League strongholds remain volatile.

The killing of Sharif Osman Bin Hadi, a student leader turned independent MP aspirant, in December last year had heightened tensions. His murder sparked violent protests, attacks on consulates and media outlets. At least 16 politicians have been killed since the election schedule was announced in early December, most of whom were from the BNP, it adds.

Crisis Group sees a daunting agenda awaiting the incoming administration.

“Institutions remain weak, the economy is heavily reliant on garment exports and remittances, and climate change poses existential threats. Foreign policy will be equally complex, with relations with India strained, US-China rivalry intensifying, and the Rohingya refugee crisis unresolved.”

Perhaps the greatest challenge lies in meeting the aspirations of Bangladesh’s youthful population, the report says, adding that roughly half are under 30, many struggling to find jobs in line with their education.

Pointing to the challenge that is political reconciliation, Crisis Group states that Awami League, despite the ban, remains a major force in Bangladesh’s history and society.

“A consensus among parties and institutions on the conditions for its re‑entry could reduce tensions, though this would require genuine remorse from its leadership for the violence of 2024 -- something Hasina has yet to show.” Foreign governments, particularly India, may play a role in brokering dialogue, it adds.