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The sample size was 5,147 respondents, selected through random sampling from the combined panels of previous survey rounds.

Of those surveyed, 93.3 percent said they plan to vote in February. Among respondents who previously said they would vote, 96.1 percent maintained that intention, while 78.5 percent of those who had earlier said they would not vote now plan to participate.

The data indicate that BNP is consolidating its support, gaining disproportionately from previously undecided voters and Awami League supporters.

Of BNP’s projected vote share, 26.6 percentage points come from voters who were earlier undecided or unwilling to disclose their preference.

Among the people who usually vote for AL, 32.9 percent now say they are likely to vote for BNP, while 13.2 percent favour Jamaat. However, 41.3 percent of AL supporters remain undecided.

The survey attributes a significant portion of BNP’s recent gains after Tarique’s return home and the death of former prime minister Khaleda Zia -- events that appear to have mobilised undecided voters.

At the constituency level, 52.9 percent of respondents said a BNP candidate would win in their area if the polls were held tomorrow, while 23.8 percent said they could not say.

Public confidence in the administration of elections has improved. About 72.3 percent of respondents said they believe the government can organise a fair election. Confidence in impartial policing and local administration stood at 74.4 percent, while 82 percent said they feel safe about casting their votes.

A panel discussion was also held at the event, where Dhaka University’s Development Studies Prof Asif M Shahan; Voice for Reform Joint Convener Fahim Mashroor; BRAIN’s Executive Director Shafiqul Rahman, political analyst and BRAIN member Jyoti Rahman; and Innovision Consulting’s Portfolio Director Tasmiah Rahman spoke, among others.