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He added that if fresh investments move ahead, total capacity may climb to 1.5 crore tonnes by 2026-27, far outstripping actual demand. “Without aligning supply with demand, further investment is risky,” he said.

Chowdhury said the association is working with the government and banks to stabilise raw material supplies, secure financial support and build a predictable policy environment.

Manwar Hossain, former BSMA president and chairman of Anwar Group of Industries, said the crisis began during the Covid-19 pandemic, when global scrap prices jumped from $400 to $700 per tonne but local producers could not pass on the higher costs.

“Since then, we have been under continuous pressure. The Russia-Ukraine war, shipping disruptions, and a depreciating taka have only worsened the situation,” he said.

He added that political changes have further weakened demand. “Government projects, once our largest market, have virtually stopped. We have lost nearly 45 percent of that business,” he said.

Hossain said many small and medium mills are shutting down as losses mount. “This could lead to an oligopolistic situation, where only four or five large players dominate. That would be detrimental to the industry’s long-term health,” he said.

PRICES RECORD LOW

BigMint data show that rebar prices in Dhaka have fallen to Tk 73,700 per tonne, the lowest in more than three years. Prices in Chattogram are slightly higher at Tk 77,100 per tonne.

Data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) show that 60-grade steel rods were retailing between Tk 81,000 and Tk 84,000 per tonne yesterday.

Mills are now operating at only 30 to 40 percent capacity, as monsoon disruptions, import curbs and weak demand continue to bite. Credit-based sales have risen, creating cash flow pressure in a market traditionally driven by cash transactions, according to BigMint.

Steel scrap imports rose by 10 percent year-on-year to 40 lakh tonnes in the first nine months of 2025, driven by global scrap prices at a five-year low. Yet the banking crisis remains a major obstacle. Several local banks have been blacklisted by international suppliers, making it harder to open letters of credit (LCs).

Even so, industry leaders hold cautious optimism.

“We have faced tough times before,” said BSMA Secretary Chowdhury.

“With stability, policy clarity, and an elected government in place, we can expect demand to return gradually, especially as foreign reserves show signs of recovery and several infrastructure projects are ready to restart,” he said.