REJAUL KARIM BYRON

Following projections by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a modest recovery for Bangladesh’s economy in the current fiscal year (FY).

The IMF expects GDP growth to reach 4.9 percent in FY2025-26, up from 3.8 percent in FY25, according to its World Economic Outlook released yesterday in Washington, DC, during the annual IMF-World Bank meetings.

Earlier in June, the multilateral lender had projected a higher growth rate of 5.4 percent for Bangladesh in FY26, citing political uncertainty, a tighter policy mix, rising trade barriers, and stress in the banking sector. The downward revision of roughly 0.5 percentage points by October comes without a detailed explanation.

The IMF’s latest projection comes a week after the World Bank, in its latest Bangladesh Development Update, projected 4.8 percent growth for the current fiscal year and expected it to accelerate to 6.3 percent in FY27.

Prior to that, the ADB, in its Asian Development Outlook on September 30, projected 5 percent GDP growth in FY26, mainly driven by increased public consumption.

The bank, however, noted headwinds from global trade shocks, persistent inflation, and domestic financial sector fragilities but predicted moderate economic expansion compared to last year.

“Future growth will depend on improving the business environment to boost competitiveness and attract investment, and on ensuring reliable energy supplies,” Hoe