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“Our import processes are so complex that goods reach the market too late and by then, prices have already spiked,” he said.

“When a supply crisis hits, some businesses exploit the situation. And in an uncertain business environment, this kind of behaviour becomes even more widespread,” he said.

Prof Raihan said another crisis was looming.

“We’re now entering the rainy season…and flooding is a possibility. This season usually brings additional inflation pressure,” he said.

“We’ve also consistently pointed out the imperfections in the market. So, just raising interest rates alone cannot be considered the only, or even the most effective method of reducing inflation. That’s something we’ve been repeatedly saying,” he said.

However, Ashikur Rahman, principal economist at the Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh, believes inflation would not rise by that much of an extent.

“The general inflation in July saw a modest rise, but this movement does not indicate a major reversal in the broader disinflationary trend,” he said.

“Inflationary pressures are still expected to ease gradually over the next four to five months, thanks to stabilising global commodity prices and relatively subdued domestic demand,” he added.

Commenting on the Bangladesh Bank’s policy stance, which was to limit inflation within 6.5 percent for FY26, he said, “It’s prudent that Bangladesh Bank has chosen to maintain the policy rate at 10 percent.”

“This signals a cautious but consistent approach—anchoring inflation expectations while supporting broader macroeconomic stability,” he said.