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Besides, he criticised ministries for failing to draw up action plans that could have compelled the next government to pursue much-needed reforms after the election.

In an interview with The Daily Star on the first anniversary of the interim government, Raihan said, “Some progress could have been made over the past year. Now, looking back, I am not confident about the sustainability of the few successes we did see.”

“I have mixed reactions on the performance of the interim government in the past year,” said the economist, who also teaches economics at Dhaka University. He acknowledged some successes, especially in export earnings and remittances, describing them as “reasonably good”. Inflation, which had stayed stubbornly high, has begun to ease.

“But it would be wrong to say we are in a comfort zone,” he said, pointing to high rice prices and the likelihood of renewed inflationary pressure in the upcoming months.

“Another positive side is that we have managed to halt the fall in foreign reserves, and they have increased slightly,” he added.

In contrast with the previous regime, large-scale corruption and widespread plundering have been brought under control, he said.

Yet, a more serious problem lies in the government’s failure to restore investor confidence. “Business confidence has not been restored,” said Raihan. “As a result, investors, especially private ones, are still very apprehensive. They are not investing.”

This sluggish investment scenario is reflected in the poor growth of private sector credit, which has remained among the lowest in recent years. Imports of capital machinery have dropped, the economist pointed out.

He attributed this to a combination of factors, including political instability. Sporadic incidents of mob violence throughout the year highlighted the government’s struggle to ensure law and order.

He said this ambiguity has left investors uncertain, as they remain in the dark about the government’s actual reform agenda.

“Will they continue the current practices, or bring major changes? This uncertainty is significant,” said Raihan.

Investors look for stability and clear policy direction, along with a defined roadmap for political transition. In the past year, none of these have materialised, commented Raihan, as he believes this has had a knock-on effect on the overall business climate, including job creation.

Two major reports, the White Paper Committee Report and the Task Force Committee Report by the interim government, had aimed to kick-start reforms.

“But there has been little follow-up,” said Raihan. “We have not seen any real initiative based on these reports or the reform measures they suggested.”

The white paper was drawn up by a 12-member committee led by prominent economist Debapriya Bhattacharya, a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). A second 12-member taskforce on economic strategy was also formed, and Raihan served on both.

“Despite these efforts, reform remains piecemeal,” he said. “There has been no clear drive or mobilisation in terms of reforms. Whatever the government has done is fragmented.”

“What feels most painful is the unfulfilled promises of last August, that major changes were coming,” Raihan added.

While he acknowledged that a year may not be enough to complete all reforms, he said the government could at least have launched the basic processes mentioned in the two reports.

“Ministries could have been instructed to prepare action plans. That would have at least pressured the next government to act,” he said.

He also raised concerns about the national budget. “We all expected this year’s budget to be somewhat different, especially with more allocation in health and education, and addressing the challenges faced by private investors,” he said.