STAR BUSINESS REPORT

Rice prices in Bangladesh are expected to fall from May for two to three months due to increased market supply but may climb again in August, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The forecast comes at a time when the cost of the food staple remains stubbornly high, placing further strain on fixed- and low-income households amid persistently high inflation.

In its latest Grain and Feed Annual report on Bangladesh released last week, the USDA said that rice prices reached record levels in 2025.

Quoting data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), the agency said the average retail price of coarse rice in Dhaka was Tk 52.9 per kilogramme in February — up 6.3 percent compared to the same month last year.

“Since October 2023, the coarse rice price has risen slightly every month, primarily due to inflation, higher milling costs, higher paddy production costs, and an inefficient supply chain,” the report said.

The USDA said that the rice supply chain involves numerous market actors, which ultimately drive up consumer prices.

A major factor behind the surge was the flooding in August 2024, which wiped out around 200,000 hectares of Aman-season rice and reduced yields.

In response, the government slashed import tariffs for private traders and initiated international procurement of rice through both open tenders and government-to-government deals.

“Despite these efforts, rice prices continue to rise in the local market,” the USDA said.

The agency projected that Bangladesh — the world’s third-largest rice producer — could harvest 2.05 crore tonnes of milled rice during this Boro season, with harvesting already under way in the northeastern region.