FROM PAGE B4

Trying to anticipate the actions of such an unpredictable figure is a fool’s errand. However, the ambiguity about Trump’s direction will have tangible consequences. Start with the financing of US government debt, which the International Monetary Fund puts at 121 percent of GDP. The bond market will constrain the president’s scope for running large budget deficits – especially if he seeks to undermine the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting credentials.

Most other governments in the developed world already face debt constraints. An exception could be Germany, where a new chancellor could release the “debt brake” which has hobbled Europe’s largest economy. The military threat from Russia may induce European countries to once again embrace joint borrowing, this time to fund defence spending. China looks set to respond to US technology restrictions by wielding export controls of its own. And the prospect of American tariffs may prompt the world’s second-largest economy to take decisive action to halt its real estate slump.

Corporate chieftains will have to spend 2025 navigating around governments and regulators as well as more fundamental business shifts. Elon Musk’s role at the heart of Trump’s administration – at least for the time being – should propel his SpaceX unit to new heights. The Tesla CEO may also help to speed up the arrival of self-driving cars in the United States. Looser antitrust restrictions could clear the way for a wave of big mergers. Insurance companies, meanwhile, will pile into the private credit boom.

In the next 12 months, tech companies will find out whether the tens of billions of dollars they have poured into AI are beginning to pay off. If the technology’s applications expand then OpenAI, the inventor of the ChatGPT chatbot, could be the meme-stock initial public offering of the year. If not, Microsoft boss Satya Nadella may have to pen an apologetic letter to the software giant’s shareholders. Technology trends will also pull in different directions, as Silicon Valley pursues smart glasses while smartphone-wary parents spark a revival of the brick phone.

As ever, the coming year will throw up surprises that did not feature in even the most elaborate scenarios. The hope must be that, when they arrive, the global economy and financial system display the same surprising resilience they have shown in the past five years.