Dhaka needs
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in 2016, we saw how he shifted the focus on domestic issues, including the anti-immigrant legislations and withdrawal from international agencies. Now that he won by a bigger margin, he’s likely to do the same again,” said Munshi Faiz Ahmad, former ambassador and chairman of Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies.
He said the Biden administration has been providing full support to Bangladesh’s interim government in carrying out reforms, development activities and climate change adaptation, and also for the Rohingyas.
“I think these will slow down. We’ll need to be proactive to pursue these in the future,” he told The Daily Star yesterday.
Bangladesh’s export to the US is over $10 billion a year and an estimated 5 lakh Bangladeshis live in the North American country. They are a top source of foreign remittance flow to Bangladesh.
Prof Amena Mohsin, of Dhaka University’s international relations, said Trump is anti-immigrant and there is a possibility he will be strict on immigrants’ family reunion scheme.
“He also spoke of imposing tax on remittance that Americans sent to their countries of origin. This will have negative impacts on countries like Bangladesh.”
The Biden administration had been focused on democratic values and human rights. Sanctions on Rab and announcement of visa restrictions were part of it. After the fall of the Awami League regime, Washington has been fully supporting the reform initiatives in Dhaka. At the same time, Bangladesh-India relations have somewhat strained since Hasina’s taking shelter in India.
“The fact is that Narendra Modi has a personal friendship with Donald Trump, [and so,] Modi will try to influence the US on its Bangladesh policy,” Amena added.
Though Munshi Faiz too said this was a possibility, he added that Trump might not change the US policy on Bangladesh as it is working to make significant reforms in its institutions.
Both analysts said Bangladesh is strategically important for the US, and it was during Trump’s previous tenure when the US designed the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which experts say, is aimed at countering China.
“Trump will continue its anti-China policy including through tariffs and other measures,” said Munshi Faiz.
The trade with Bangladesh is not likely to be affected, the analysts said, adding that the GSP facility that was suspended by the US in 2013 may be reinstated if Trump, who is more focused on trade and commerce, finds it economy-wise more beneficial for the US as it is likely to reduce imports from China.
During his election campaign, Donald Trump spoke of ending the Russia-Ukraine war.
“He may start negotiating with both Ukraine and Russia for ceasefire. In that case, the economic shockwaves caused by the war may be eased. This will have positive impacts on the global economy, including that of Bangladesh,” Munshi said.
Amena, however, thinks the European NATO allies will not want a ceasefire with Russia holding vast swathes of Ukrainian territories. “So, we need to wait to see what comes.”
Both the analysts said Trump, who was behind the Abraham Accord during his previous term to ease relations between Israel and Arab Muslim countries, will possibly not to be able to facilitate any ceasefire between Israel and Hamas or Hezbollah.
“The Palestinians will not accept any ceasefire with the Israeli forces occupying large part of Gaza,” said Amena.
She said she is worried over Trump’s relations with the authoritarian regimes.
“When a president of the US takes nationalistic, racist and authoritarian policy, it is not a good sign for the world.
“It’s important for Bangladesh to diversify its trade, strengthen its capacity, train its people and explore markets in various parts of the world … We have to be more pragmatic and proactive in terms of trade, economy and diplomacy.”