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NASRALLAH’S KILLING IN ISRAELI STRIKES

What will Israel, Iran, Hezbollah do next?
CNN ONLINE
The last 72 hours in the Middle East – in which Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued to bombard the Iran-backed group across Lebanon – have once more ratcheted up fears that this long-running conflict could spiral into a wider regional war. Here’s what we know so far and where things might go next.
ESCALATING CONFLICT
Israel has pounded what it says are Hezbollah targets in the Lebanese capital of Beirut and elsewhere in the country on Friday, Saturday and yesterday, including the attack on the capital’s southern suburbs that killed Nasrallah and another top figure Nabil Kaouk.
Lebanese civilians say they cannot heed warnings from Israel’s military to avoid places where Hezbollah is operating, because the group is highly secretive.
The US sees the possibility of a limited ground incursion into Lebanon as Israel moves forces to its northern border, CNN reported earlier. But the US officials stressed that Israel does not appear to have made a decision on whether to carry out a ground incursion.
WHAT WILL HEZBOLLAH OR IRAN DO?
In the wake of Nasrallah’s killing – and the attack on pagers and walkie-talkies – Hezbollah’s remaining leaders are likely to be assessing how to meet, communicate and respond. But analysts say the setbacks faced by the group are unlikely to leave it completely weakened.
“Hezbollah has taken the biggest blow to its military infrastructure since its inception,” said Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and author of “Hezbollahland.”
The group, however, still retains skilled commanders, as well as many of its most powerful assets – including precision-guided missiles and long-range missiles that could inflict significant damage to Israel’s military and civilian infrastructure, said Ghaddar.
But the latest development raises the potential for a shift. Hezbollah will almost certainly respond, according to Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official.
Another key question is the extent to which Iran could get involved.
Iran’s embassy in Lebanon in a social media post Friday called Nasrallah’s killing a “serious escalation that changes the rules of the game,” and said its perpetrator “will be punished and disciplined appropriately.”
The Iranian envoy to the UN on Saturday also requested an emergency meeting of the Security Council to “condemn Israel’s actions in the strongest possible terms.”
Pointing to the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah, and Israel and Iran, former US State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller told CNN: “None of these wars of attrition are going to end any time soon… there are no transformative, diplomatic Hollywood endings.”