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Accurate data to help address economic challenges better
MD DEEN ISLAM
The recent correction of nearly $14 billion in export figures by the Bangladesh Bank (BB) has led to significant changes in the financial account of the balance of payments (BoP). The financial account, a crucial component of the BoP, turned positive after more than a year due to this correction.
Previously, there was a substantial gap between the export data provided by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) and the BB, with the former showing higher shipments compared to the latter. The correction adjusted this discrepancy, resulting in a positive financial account for the July-April period of fiscal year 2023-24.
The balance of the current account, which records a nation’s transactions with the rest of the world, fell into negative territory during the same period as it stood at $5.72 billion. These corrections are crucial for understanding their broader implications on economic indicators like GDP and growth estimates, and the potential impact on policy framing and data integrity.
Exports are a critical component of a country’s GDP, specifically within the net exports (exports minus imports) segment of the expenditure approach to GDP calculation.
A reduction in reported exports directly impacts GDP calculations. The nearly $14 billion downward adjustment will likely result in a lower GDP than previously estimated. This correction will lower the GDP growth rate.
With exports contributing less to overall economic output, GDP growth rates for the period will need to be revised downward, and future projections for economic growth will need to be adjusted to reflect the more accurate export figures, potentially leading to more conservative growth estimates.
The revision in export data will also affect sector-specific growth rates, particularly in export-driven sectors like textiles and garments, which dominate Bangladesh’s export profile. Lower reported exports will reduce sectoral GDP contributions, that is, the contribution of export-heavy sectors to GDP will be revised downward.
Additionally, lower export figures could indicate reduced demand, potentially impacting employment and future investment in these sectors.
With the revised export figures indicating a significant decline, policymakers may need to reassess their strategies to stimulate economic growth and stabilise the macroeconomic environment. Potential policy responses could include strategies to enhance the competitiveness of Bangladesh’s exports, such as improving quality standards, diversifying export products, and exploring new markets.
The decline in exports necessitates a review of trade policies to address underlying issues and support the export sector. Improving trade facilitation measures, such as reducing bureaucratic hurdles and enhancing port efficiency, can help boost export performance.
The significant revision in export data could create temporary confusion and mistrust among stakeholders, including businesses, investors, and international partners. Revisions might lead to questions regarding the credibility and reliability of economic data published by national agencies.
Businesses and policymakers relying on previous data for forecasting and planning may need to adjust their strategies and models, leading to short-term disruptions.
However, the reconciliation of export data provides a more accurate picture of Bangladesh’s economic landscape, which is crucial for effective policy-making and strategic planning. Accurate data will enable policymakers to better address the challenges facing the export sector and the broader economy.
This may involve reorienting policies to focus on domestic market strengthening, improving export competitiveness, and enhancing economic resilience.
In conclusion, despite the positive financial account, the economy’s health remains unchanged. Bangladesh continues to face challenges related to foreign currency shortages for managing external transactions. The correction addresses anomalies but does not fundamentally alter the economic landscape.
The author is an associate professor of economics at the University of Dhaka.