FILE PHOTO: REUTERS

Say what you will about former US President Donald Trump, but give him his due.

Just when you thought there were no norms of political etiquette left to destroy, Trump comes up with a sledgehammer, creating history by achieving the dubious distinction of becoming the first US president ever to be convicted as a felon.

This follows a whole slew of firsts: the first president in US history who refused to concede defeat; the first president to incite a mob to attack the US Capitol (the last time the Capitol was attacked was by the British in 1814); and the first president to defend insurrectionists. During his presidency, Trump lied with such abandon that the US media, usually deferential to the office, were forced to explicitly say so—and keeping track of Trump’s lies became a real journalistic exercise.

These dubious “firsts” are leavened generously with political misdemeanours of a bewildering variety and number. Just a random sampling: Trump forced his press aide to falsely claim that he had a larger crowd than Obama at the inauguration. He suggested bleach as a cure for Covid. To this day, he claims the 2020 presidential elections were rigged, despite the fact that all his campaign’s lawsuits were thrown out of court by judges, including many appointed by him.

The extraordinary thing is not just how outrageous Trump’s actions are. It is the fact that he keeps getting away with it. This has turned US politics on its head and has political analysts scratching their heads in despair.

Let’s take a quick trip down the memory lane to see what happened to another disgraced US president, and you will get an idea of how the guardrails have completely come off.

On August 7, 1974, Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona, Senator Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania, and House Representative John Rhodes of Arizona—the top Congressional Republican leaders—gave erstwhile President Richard Nixon a warning: support within his party had plummeted, they told him, and Nixon was likely to be impeached. The next day, Nixon resigned. In a bit of gallows humour, erstwhile Republican Senator Bob Dole quipped that at least they had the burglar vote, referring to the break-in at Democratic headquarters in Washington, DC that snowballed into the scandal that felled Nixon.

Today, it is impossible to imagine any Republican lawmaker standing up to Trump, and for good reason. Some have tried before and have had to kiss their political careers goodbye. Contrast the Republican leaders of the Nixon era with today’s Republican lawmakers, who are falling all over themselves to ingratiate themselves to the former president.

Yet, the fact remains that Trump has been found guilty on 34 felony counts by a jury of his peers. It is noteworthy that Trump’s family members were conspicuous by their absence—only his son Eric showed up in court.

Whatever happened to former First Lady Melania? Melania, it must be said, is an oddity. Whether it’s Republican first ladies like Pat Nixon, Barbara or Laura Bush, or Democratic first ladies like Rosalynn Carter, Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama—US first ladies have a reputation for warmth and engagement. Much of it is stage-managed, to be sure, but all nonetheless command some degree of respect and affection. Melania is an exception. It isn’t that she is widely loathed. The curious thing about her is that she is a bit of a cypher—one doesn’t quite know what to make of her.

That said, one can’t be too harsh. It can’t be much fun playing the loyal wife in a case where your husband is accused of giving hush money to cover up a liaison with a porn star. Marital loyalty has its limits.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is quite clearly stuck with Trump, felon or not. Trump’s reaction has been his usual bluster: it’s all rigged, everybody is out to get him. (Trump being Trump, he didn’t miss this occasion to make a quick buck. His campaign reports that it raised over $58 million in 24 hours of the verdict. No surprise there: here is a guy who made money off his mugshot after he was booked in Georgia.)

Thanks to Trump, American politics is in uncharted territory. We have an unprecedented situation where the US Secret Service has to figure out how to provide the former president security if he does become a jailbird.

Meanwhile, the upcoming presidential election in November is still up in the air. Trump is like the proverbial tail wagging the dog—he holds a significant part of the Republican electorate in Svengali-like thrall. So now, it is he who decides what the Republican Party stands for, not vice versa.

The effect of Trump’s conviction on his support is hard to gauge, given mixed response to recent polls. While he has lost some support, about half of the respondents say they are more likely to vote for him, Axios reports.

It is a strange world indeed, where a felony conviction fails to undo a presidential candidacy, but these are indeed the strange political times we live in. In the recent past, US presidential elections have had nail-biting finishes, with just some tens of thousands of votes in a handful of swing states determining the winner. Add to that the deepening polarisation where most voters are staunchly partisan, and you have a political tinderbox where every little thing matters.

Trump’s conviction may cast a shadow on his support, but then incumbent President Joe Biden isn’t exciting the electorate all that much. Add to that Biden’s stand on Israel’s mass slaughter in Gaza, which has deeply antagonised two demographics Democrats desperately need to push Biden over the finish line: Black Americans and young people.

Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once observed, “A week is a long time in politics.” November is months away. Obviously, a lot can change as the world waits to see if Trump is capable of another first: can he be the first felon elected to be US president?

We won’t know the answer to that before November 5. In the meantime, fasten your seatbelts, because this is going to be one crazy political rollercoaster ride.