Policy experts urge
FROM PAGE 12
He also spoke about the Maldives, where China, the US, India and other countries are competing for influence, but viewed that China will be a good partner when there is genuine, actual competition.
“If there isn’t competition, what we have seen over and over again is China offering unsustainable debt for unsustainable projects.”
Experts said Lu’s warning of regional fallouts due to the Myanmar crisis should trigger a concerted effort by the international community to stabilise Myanmar.
Bangladesh, which is the number one victim of the crisis, should increase its efforts in every manner possible.
They also said global powers are also competing for influence in resourceful Myanmar that is located strategically along the Indian Ocean.
Prof Imtiaz Ahmed of Dhaka University’s International Relations Department said Washington supports Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), which has an armed wing “Peoples’ Defence Force” that, along with the ethnic rebel groups, is fighting the Myanmar military for democracy.
He said Washington wants to have influence in this region to counter China, which has relations both with the Myanmar military and some of the rebel groups, including the Arakan Army (AA), that are now fighting in Bangladesh’s bordering Rakhine state.
The civil war, which intensified following the Myanmar military’s takeover of Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy in February 2021, spread further since October last year forcing hundreds of Myanmar military members to flee to India and Bangladesh.
Hundreds of thousands of Myanmar civilians, including Rohingyas, in Rakhine have already been displaced and several hundred have been waiting near the border to flee to Bangladesh, which has already been burdened by more than a million Rohingyas and is now denying accepting any more.
M Humayun Kabir, president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute, said the Myanmar military will definitely try to take back the towns that were occupied by the rebel groups.
“Can Bangladesh stop the Myanmar nationals if the military bombs the bordering towns? There will be obvious influx and spillover of the conflict. This was already evident,” he said.
The former ambassador said regional countries besides Bangladesh -- India, China, Thailand -- all will be affected by the conflict. Human trafficking, drug smuggling and conflicts within the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar have already been rampant, creating security concerns for Bangladesh.
Trade and connectivity projects, including those of India and China are also being affected, which is why nobody wants an unstable Myanmar, experts say.
Humayun Kabir further said China has been trying for stability in Myanmar but it is going nowhere.
“Other countries including the US, India and China should come up with a diplomatic initiative to facilitate a reconciliation.”
Bangladesh, the worst victim of the Myanmar crisis, can also initiate a diplomatic move and the five-points consensus of the ASEAN -- that includes immediate cessation of violence, constructive dialogue among all parties and provision of humanitarian assistance – can be the starting point, he said.
“The ethnic rebel groups want autonomy, not independence. On the other hand, Myanmar army wants a safe exit. There should be a big push for a solution by the actors. Bangladesh can definitely play a role here.”
Prof Imtiaz says there are sociological aspects of the military in Myanmar’s governance process.
“Though the majority of Bamar civilians are now fighting for democracy, military influence is very strong there. So, the western type of democracy may not be a feasible option for Myanmar.
“Also, China and India may not want the US to come into the play of Myanmar affairs.”
He also said, “In recent times, we have seen India and China, despite having enmity over land borders, took similar positions on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Bangladesh’s election. They also work together in BRICS. So, they can also work together for stability in Myanmar.”
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud and Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval recently agreed to work together for this purpose, he said.
“I think this is a good move. China can also be involved here.”