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Bangladesh to become 2nd fastest economy among 46 nations: Mastercard
AKANDA MUHAMMAD JAHID
Bangladesh will be the second fastest-growing economy from among 46 countries next year, according to an annual economic outlook of Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI).
The country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.3 percent in 2024 whereas India’s expected growth is 6.4 percent, the highest among the countries in the list.
Vietnam came in third with a projection of 6.2 percent.
The MEI released the “Economic Outlook: Balancing Prices & Priorities” for the coming year yesterday, outlining the watchouts that would define global growth.
However, the MEI’s estimate is lower than the Bangladesh government’s target of 7.5 per cent for fiscal year 2023-24.
Earlier, International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a 6 percent GDP growth while World Bank 5.6 percent.
In fiscal year 2022-23, the country’s economy grew 6.03 percent.
According to the MEI outlook, the Philippines’ GDP is expected to grow 5.6 percent, the fourth highest, followed by Indonesia’s 5.1 percent.
It also forecasted a 4.6 percent GDP growth for Mainland China and 4.5 percent for Malaysia.
According to the report, there is no one-size-fits-all story for the Asia Pacific region.
The macro picture is expected to be one of modest growth, largely on par with 2023 levels, as economies continue to stabilise while key drivers of growth, like exports and tourism, edge closer to pre-pandemic norms.
“Drilling down into individual economies, growth expectations are mixed across the region,” it said.
On one end of the spectrum, Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan, and South Korea should see upticks while slowdowns are anticipated in Australia, the Chinese Mainland, Japan and New Zealand, said the MEI.
India and Indonesia are expected to hold largely steady at 2023 levels, it said.
Inflation to Persist
Meanwhile, Mastercard has projected a 7.3 percent consumer price inflation for Bangladesh in 2024, the fourth highest among 48 countries and highest among South Asian countries.
Earlier, Bangladesh set a 6 percent inflation target for 2023-24 while the IMF projected 7.25 percent. The country’s Consumer Price Index recorded 9.02 percent in 2022-23.
The EMI predicted the highest 156.9 percent inflation for Argentina while 53.3 percent and 24.9 percent for Turkey and Egypt, the second and third highest respectively.
Sri Lanka’s inflation is projected to stand at 6.9 percent, the fifth highest in the world and second highest in South Asian. India’s inflation is expected to be at 4.5 percent in 2024.
More Discretionary Spending
Consumers across the Asia Pacific region are likely to spend more on discretionary items such as travel and entertainment in 2024, according to the MEI.
As the economic ripple effects of the pandemic subside in 2024, Asia Pacific consumers should be able to allocate a larger share of their wallets to discretionary spending, it said.