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new demand for commodities. Copper, for one, is essential in making electric motors and batteries, as well as in power grids, and other efforts to boost renewable energy. In wind energy, for example, China added more generation capacity in the past two years than over the previous seven and will grow its grid-connected wind power at a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 11 percent to 2.38 terawatts at the end of 2032, according to Wood Mackenzie.

That’s why China’s copper demand will still rise by 4 million metric tons from the 2020 level to around 18 million tons per year in 2030, according to estimates by commodity trading group Trafigura. That compares to an increase of 5 million tons in annual demand from 2010 to 2020. And China’s copper demand has grown by 8 percent this year, faster than the 5 percent Xi is targeting for overall GDP growth. Copper prices followed the boom and gloom surrounding China’s pandemic reopening this year, yet they did much better than the collapse threatened by the property downturn. The most traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) still rose about 4 percent this year to $9,367 a ton, while three-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange are about 3 percent higher. Chinese producers are having a blast: shares in Shanghai-listed Zijin Mining have gained almost 20 percent this year.

It’s similar for aluminium, which is prominent in property construction but also in EV components, such as those that enclose and protect the battery pack, and infrastructure like charging stations. China’s annual aluminium demand rose by 18 million tons from 2010 to 2020 and is forecast to grow by another 13 million tons to over 50 million tons a year in 2030, per Trafigura. Aluminium prices on the SHFE have risen by more than 1 percent this year, outperforming global prices on the London Metal Exchange, which have slumped by more than 8 percent, per ING analysts.

Together, these factors are acting as a floor for Chinese growth. This month, the International Monetary Fund upgraded China’s GDP growth for 2023 and 2024. It now expects the country’s output to expand by 4.6 percent in 2024 from a 4.2 percent estimate in October. The People’s Republic contributed 35 percent of world GDP growth in 2019; it would still account for 27 percent of that in 2024, even if it expands by a sub-par 4 percent, according to Breakingviews calculations based on IMF and World Bank data. That’s partly because other regions, like the United States, are expected to slow.