Unrest bearing on fragile economy
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and cause more suffering for low- and middle-income people, said Selim Raihan, executive director of the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem).
“Some businessmen also can exploit the situation and raise the prices,” he said.
The current situation is impacting the efforts to stabilise the economy, said Raihan, also a professor of economics at the Dhaka University.
Exports, which are already on the slow lane, will be further disrupted, putting more pressure on the strained dollar stockpile.
“Although the economy has been under stress for a year and a half now, things have not spiralled out of control yet. The whole situation is creating uncertainty and troubles for the economy.”
The continuation of the political unrest could hit the economy hard.
“Once things go out of control, it will be very tough to reign it in,” Raihan added.
Mustafa K Mujeri, a former chief economist of the central bank, said that in every election year, some violence and political uncertainty are seen and the economy could absorb the pressure.
But this time is different.
“Bangladesh’s economic problems have turned into a crisis already. And any political unrest may deepen the crisis further …”
The global situation is not favourable either, said Mujeri, a former director general of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.
He urged the government to reach a political consensus through effective dialogue.
“Otherwise, it will be difficult to revive the economy after the election,” said Mujeri, also an executive director at the Institute for Inclusive Finance and Development.
Faruque Hassan, president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said that if the political unrest continues, it will heavily impact garment exports.
Since the garment sector operates with a tight schedule, blockades or strikes for two to three days throw off the schedule and raise the possibility of missing deadlines.
“It is tough to say how long it will take for us to overcome the situation,” said Hassan, also the managing director of Giant Group.
Talking to this newspaper, Fazlul Hoque, a former president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said buyers have the option to shift their orders to other countries as the competitor countries have huge capacity.
Amid the political unrest, the garment sector’s four million workers went on a protest campaign for 12 days for a minimum wage of at least Tk 20,000. The unrest led to suspension of production in as many as 500 factories.
“The political and labour unrest is creating financial cost and damaging goodwill. It might be very costly for the economy,” he added.