Blue wave or red?

Key factors which might decide US midterms
AGENCIES
Democrats and Republicans agree the midterm elections will turn on just a few key issues — but they disagree on what those will be.
Democrats believe they can win at least some of the fights in the final stretch over abortion rights and former President Trump. Republicans would rather battle it out on the margins over inflation and crime. And both sides want to claim victory in the immigration debate.
Non-partisan election forecasters predict that Republicans are likely to pick up roughly 25 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives, more than enough to win a majority. Analysts said Republicans also could pick up the one seat they need to win control of the Senate, reports Reuters.
Here are the four issues that could shape the elections’ outcome:
INFLATION
Republicans believe inflation will be the issue most top of mind for voters as they head to the ballot box and believe what they call President Biden’s economy gives them the edge.
They see Biden’s lackluster poll numbers and the stubbornly high prices as a sign they can win if they convince voters to trust Republicans to improve their financial situations.
While Biden’s standing has recently improved, many Americans are still wrestling with higher costs for basic daily needs, a reality that has privately worried Democrats who see their opposition making headway.
Inflation consistently polls as a top issue for Americans. A Reuters-Ipsos poll found that 30 percent named it as their top concern, and the party in power almost always gets the blame for economic woes.
ABORTION
Democrats saw the Supreme Court’s ruling to overturn Roe v. Wade as horrible and inhumane, so they got right to work trying to turn that anger into votes.
Democrats are “working to make sure voters hear every horrifying quote, see the antipathy they have for women” on the other side, said Julie McClain Downey, vice president of communications at American Bridge 21st Century, a Democratic advocacy and lobbying firm that has focused heavily on reproductive freedom since the ruling in June.
Polls have shown the issue has a strength that surprised many, reports The Hill. Democrats have also won every special House election since the court’s ruling, and House, Senate and gubernatorial candidates across the country have centered their campaigns around convincing voters Republicans are working to take away reproductive rights.
CRIME
Republicans have made headway in recent weeks in two Senate battlegrounds by characterizing the Democratic candidates as crime apologists who are closely aligned with a party that wants to “defund the police.”
GOP operatives and national strategists have increased their attacks on Mandela Barnes, the Democratic Senate nominee in Wisconsin and a young Black progressive, and Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman.
In Wisconsin, Republicans have run ads seeking to tie Barnes to criminal justice reforms they characterize as soft on crime. In Pennsylvania, the GOP has highlighted crimes taking place around Philadelphia. And, the tactic appears to be working.
IMMIGRATION
If there’s one midterm issue likely to preview a big part of the 2024 presidential primary, it’s immigration. Look no further than Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) recent decision to move migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, a wealthy coastal area of Massachusetts.
DeSantis is one of the leading Republicans trying to make a national platform out of the country’s divided stance on immigration. His approach, which critics say amounts to political theatre, shares some of the broad contours of Trump’s own policy platform, which included his signature support for building a wall across the border with Mexico.