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Tough ‘balancing’ act awaits South Asia, Bangladesh
Inflation, and food and energy insecurity, triggered by the war in Ukraine, have become major concerns for Bangladesh and many countries across the world. The Daily Star’s Mohammad Al-Masum Molla sits with Prof Shahab Enam Khan of the international relations department at Jahangirnagar University and asks the expert how the conflict is affecting Bangladesh and the South Asia region.
What are the impacts of the war on Bangladesh?
Bangladesh is at a geopolitical crossroads. The necessity to understand geopolitics through the eyes of Dhaka has never been as complex. The Cold War-like situation posed by the Ukrainian war has deeply polarised the world. The East and the West are on the verge of a new global political order. And US Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei has only intensified the Washington-Beijing tussle in the Indo-Pacific region. Bangladesh feels the heat of these geopolitical events as high food and energy costs along with looming debt repayment schedules put a stain on the country’s reserve. Multilateralism, a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s foreign policy, has been shaken by “Kremlinology”, a word that we refer to understand the Kremlin’s responses to world affairs.
How much has it affected Bangladesh and South Asia economically?
The global financial or food markets are not resilient enough against a prolonged war in Ukraine. We should keep in mind the catastrophic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and climate shocks. Russia and Ukraine export nearly one-third of the wheat and barley needed to feed the world. They are suppliers of more than 70 percent of the sunflower oil to the global market. Russian fertiliser is crucial for global food production. Sanctions on Russia, supply chain disruption in grains and energy, and ever-escalating freight pricing have made food security extremely volatile. Like neighbouring countries, this situation will continue to put pressure on Bangladesh in the coming months. Sustaining a stable foreign exchange reserve, controlling inflation to let consumers purchase electricity and food, and securing cost-effective energy and food supplies will be significant challenges for the region in the coming months.
How does it affect South Asian geopolitics?
The war is showing no signs of ending. The new arms race among the major powers is speeding up, and the sanctions on Russia have made access to energy difficult for countries in South Asia. The Cold War syndrome has put countries in a difficult situation in choosing sides and balancing strategic relations and trade priorities. The Bay of Bengal’s rapid militarisation is just a matter of time. On top of that, the poor energy policies of these countries will keep them on their toes in the coming years.
Do you think this conflict is creating new polarisation?
There is an axiom in international affairs – “place matters”. The Russia-Ukraine landmass is considered worthy of war for three key issues: comparative agricultural advantages, navigable waters with access to the sea and warm water ports, and high deposit of natural and mineral resources. Hence, the war will continue until Kremlin is satisfied with its control over these three key issues. Ukraine’s bid for Nato membership, and the US-Europe engagement against Kremlin are narratives that resonate with Beijing as it considers the West’s efforts to contain its growth, both economically and militarily, unfair. So, it is natural to see a new tie between China and Russia. However, there is a limit to that. On the other hand, the US needs Europe and Nato to remain united amid challenging times. But this will be tested during the winter as Europe is still primarily dependent on Russian gas to heat homes. Yet, in practical terms, the countries will continue to negotiate to sustain national security and domestic economic stability.
Has this war pushed Bangladesh close to Russia or India?
Geographical proximity and political preferences are the critical reasons for closer and alleviated ties between Dhaka and Delhi. The two countries also enjoy close economic and security ties. The war has brought Delhi and Dhaka to work closer in the fields of energy and food security. Finding suitable fuel sources without compromising its national interests, Dhaka needs to synchronise its acts carefully to deal with the energy crisis effectively. Currently, Russia appears to be a key player in Bangladesh’s energy mix. However, the war has slowed down economic activities between the countries.
Is it possible for Bangladesh to remain neutral?
So far, Bangladesh has impressively pursued a balanced relationship between two major power blocs led by the US and China. This has helped sustain its growth. However, nothing is constant in international politics. If the Cold War syndrome continues, maintaining the balancing act between the power blocs will be harder for Bangladesh. Unfortunately, a significant chunk of the Bangladeshi socio-political community is yet to learn and practice negotiations to secure Bangladesh’s national interest– be it in international or domestic politics, energy governance, financial integrity, or food security.