AN OPEN

DIALOGUE

Dr Abdullah Shibli

is an economist and works for Change Healthcare, Inc., an information technology company. He also serves as senior research fellow at the US-based International Sustainable Development Institute (ISDI).

ABDULLAH SHIBLI

THIS year’s floods and the misery they continue to cause have made us realise that nature still exercises a very powerful influence on our economy and the lives of poor people. While the elite and the political leaders ensconced in Dhaka city celebrate our middle-income status and the opening of the landmark Padma Bridge, for millions affected by the floods in the Sylhet region, the current situation and the future are grim.

The London-based International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) conducted a survey in Bangladesh on the cost of flooding for the poor families affected. Of the 1,320 flooded households they interviewed, nearly a third had incurred debts trying to raise the floors of their homes, others had invested in better protection for their livestock, in addition to taking other measures to reduce the effects of the flood on their lives.

Floods are not new to Bangladesh. Statistics show that in only the last seven years, the country’s northern and northeastern regions have witnessed five major floods. Prof Saiful Islam of the Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Buet) has concluded from 35 years of flooding data that “rains are getting more unpredictable and many rivers are rising above dangerous levels more frequently than before.”

A global dataset from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reveals that the country will experience severe floods periodically due to “nonlinear geomorphological and hydrometeorological trends, unplanned land use practices including urban sprawl, deforestation and significant population growth.”

During my studies at Dhaka University, Prof Swapan Adnan’s course on “The Economy of Bangladesh” presented an analytical perspective on the range of flood control measures on the table, and the dilemma that the Pakistani rulers faced as they tried to address the cost of various proposed structural interventions. One lesson we all took away from his class was a keen awareness of the problem we faced, interlaced with the hope that the new leaders of Bangladesh would now be able to tackle this recurrent natural disaster and develop a set of actions that will be consistent with people’s wishes, as opposed to the top-down decision-making mechanism during the Pakistan era.

That was almost 50 years ago. It appears that not much has changed since then, and one could even characterise the current state of affairs as policy paralysis. “The siltation of riverbeds caused by deforestation and solid waste dumping has already reduced the water-carrying capacity of the rivers in Bangladesh,” Ashiq Iqbal, a researcher at the IWFM, recently told Al Jazeera. While every year there are demands to improve the response to such disasters, limited resources make the process of improving civic infrastructure or dredging rivers a challenge for Bangladesh. While megaprojects such as roads, bridges, power plants, and tunnels are swallowing down our development funds, many vocal activists are blaming everything on climate change and the inaction of rich countries.

In the meantime, there is an intense discussion taking place on social media, as well as among experts, about whether the recent obsession with road construction, particularly in the flood-prone haor areas, has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of flash floods. A case in point is the 29.73km Itna-Mithamoin-Austagram road, popularly known as the “Haor Road,” which has undoubtedly facilitated direct road connectivity between the haor region and other parts of the country, including Dhaka, Sylhet, and Chattogram. But the Haor Road might also have contributed to the floods in seven districts. Dr Md Shamsul Hoque, professor of civil engineering at Buet, said the highway had been a bad idea from the beginning. “By constructing the Itna-Mithamoin-Austagram road, we have caused huge damage to the fragile and special ecosystem of the haor region. We learnt by paying a heavy price,” he said in an interview.

Now, what are some of the solutions going forward? Floods can be destructive to humans and the natural environment, but they also help drive biodiversity and are essential to the functioning of many ecosystems. In this context, dredging has been proven as an effective process to control the deposited sediment to prevent flooding and make a pathway for the main channel flow. It also allows us to further solve engineering problems related to sedimentation and erosion in rivers, estuaries, and coastal seas.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) can address climate and natural hazards at the same time as contributing to other sustainable development goals. They can reduce vulnerability to climate change and natural hazards by reducing exposure to impacts (e.g. forests protecting against floods), reducing sensitivity to impacts (e.g. by diversifying livelihood options) and increasing the capacity to adapt to change (e.g. by empowering communities and individuals).

Climate change scenarios using hydrological and hydrodynamic models show that the incremental cost for Bangladesh to climate-proof roads and railways, river embankments protecting agricultural lands, and drainage systems and erosion control measures for major population centres are less than USD 3,000 million and USD 54 million in annual recurrent costs.

Sound public policies, prudent planning, and institutions with a majority of human resources are required to ensure that such capital-intensive measures are implemented within budget. In terms of mitigation, infrastructures and soft solutions are both essential. Physical measures need to be complemented by education, job training, and other “soft” investments designed to reduce reliance on resources and assets whose value may be eroded by climate change. Rather, measures should offer a sustainable path that accommodates their effect in the least disruptive way without placing a disproportionate burden on the poor and vulnerable.

And on a broader scale, Bangladesh should work with other countries in the region to prepare for a world with more intense and disruptive flooding events. The challenge will only get harder as the world gets hotter.

In what is called the worst flooding event in Bangladesh in over a century, people in the Sylhet region are barely surviving day to day.

PHOTO:

SHEIKH NASIR