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MODI’S U-TURN ON FARM REFORMS
Electoral politics trumps economics
Farmers’ protest against farm laws provided a glue to opposition parties to join hands against BJP in the coming round of assembly elections in five states
Our Correspondent, New Delhi
Electoral politics in a democracy like India is all about taking the right decision at the right time and popular perception.
So, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to the televised address to the nation at the unusual time of 9:00am yesterday to announce the decision to withdraw the three controversial farm laws passed by parliament more than a year ago, the fresh assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Goa less than six months down the line could have been uppermost in his mind.
The decision to take back the three laws, which were passed by parliament in September 2020 and which Modi had so aggressively defended as aimed at reforming the farm sector, particularly for the “benefit” of 80 percent of poor farmers with less than two hectares of land, came after the government held out for more than a year in the face of unrelenting street protests by farmers mainly from Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh on the borders of Delhi.
This was the second time the Modi government was forced to climb down on an issue related to farmers. In 2015, a year after Modi was swept to power in May, 2014, he had to revoke the Land Acquisition ordinance after sustained pushbacks against it in what was seen as a clear indication that his government remains mindful of possible electoral fallouts over the issues concerning farmers who constitute nearly 60 per cent of the electorate.
The difference between the land acquisition law withdrawal in 2015 is BJP gained a key regional ally in Bihar but in the case of farm sector laws, the saffron party’s standing by them cost its key Punjab ally Shiromani Akali Dali which parted ways in 2020.
In 2015, the BJP had faced an electoral battle in the eastern state of Bihar in alliance with regional party Janata Dal (United) headed by Nitish Kumar to win power there.
The same indomitable urge to win elections appears to be in play in the battle for Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and the other smaller states in the first half of 2022, whose results would be a bellwether for the BJP and the opposition ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
It is frequently said that the road to majority in the Lok Sabha passes through Uttar Pradesh, electorally the most crucial state which has the highest number of 80 seats. So, much depends on which party gets to rule the state in the coming assembly elections.
There has been growing concern within the BJP about the traction the farmers’ agitation against the three farm laws have had not just in UP but also in the other states going to the polls in early 2022.
What has added to the worry of BJP leadership is the party’s dimming prospects in Uttar Pradesh, considered the state’s granary, which accounts for nearly 130 of the 400-odd seats in the state assembly. The saffron party is also concerned that the speculation about an alliance between key regional parties of UP Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal would be a big headache had the issue of farmers’ protests remained unresolved.
Adding to the woes of the saffron party in UP was the adverse impact of the killing of four farmers who were mowed down by a SUV Lakhimpur Kheri district.
The fact that BJP has decided to deploy Modi’s key aide and Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to connect with the booth-level party workers in western Uttar Pradesh in the next couple of weeks reflected the pressure on the saffron party as far as the election goes.
Many in the Modi government, including the PM himself, often point to its penchant for many firm decisions, including demonetisation in November, 2016, scrapping of Article 370 withdrawing the special status for Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 and Citizenship Amendment Act and riding out the storms created by them.
Therefore, the decision to repeal the three farm laws has dented the image of a tough and decisive government even though it is also an acknowledgement that in politics invulnerability is often only skin-deep. The farmers’ protest against the three farm laws provided a glue to opposition parties to join hands against BJP in the coming round of assembly elections in five states including Punjab and UP where the issue has a bigger resonance.
In withdrawing the three farm laws, Modi may have tendered an apology but will it be enough to disarm BJP’s rivals?
Farmers celebrate as they pose for pictures after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that he will repeal the controversial farm laws, at the Ghazipur farmers protest site near Delhi-UP border, India, yesterday.