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Bangladesh Agriculture: The last and the next fifty years
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number of 223 million. If nothing else changes, the demand for food may rise roughly by nearly 50 percent or so taking the average projections. However, income changes will also take place. Just before the pandemic, per capita GDP had been rising at a rate of more or less 8 percent per annum. That means the per capita GDP had been rising at more or less 6 percent per annum. That means if the momentum persists, Bangladesh would have doubled per capita GDP in roughly 12 years i.e., right after 2030. Unfortunately, the pandemic has slowed down economic activities and gaining the momentum back may take quite some time. However, if no further dislocation takes place, it is likely that the economy may be back on its earlier growth path in 2/3 years’ time.
We already know that a sizeable group of people have lost their livelihood partly or fully. The public sector has remained largely unaffected. The formal private sector was hit badly and may be quite well on the path to recovery; however, as reported, small and medium enterprises are still struggling. And the informal sector, which employs most people, is the worst sufferer. Usually with a rise in income, the proportion of expenditure on food falls while people also shift from cereals to more nutrition-dense animal protein foods, milk and eggs as well as fruits and vegetables. The shift from rice had been discernible over time, albeit slowly, with shift to non-cereals. The sudden falls in income at present may create a backtrack as the non-cereal foods are generally costlier which may mean falling back on rice more heavily. In the short to medium run, therefore, demand for rice may increase on a per capita basis but hopefully as the economy rebounds, as and when it does, the “normal” trends will resume.
Given this, note that of all the sectors, agriculture, particularly crop agriculture, was the least adversely affected due to boro harvest. But vegetables and fruits output, though not lost, could not be marketed due to supply chain disruptions causing substantial losses to farmers. Far more severe were the losses in poultry farming as well as milk production. Aquaculture probably suffered lower losses. As the supply chains got back to normal, these have basically revived again. So, in the short to medium run, agriculture, many think, may be the exit strategy from the present economic dislocation. However, for this to happen, the supply chain issues, ensuring fair prices to farmers, and marketing infrastructures have to be modernised with proper storage facilities including cold chain development for perishables and modern vehicular system for proper transport to minimise wastage. To support such development, government intervention, for appropriate technology and financing policies both at point of origin and destination, is needed. Increasingly, the supermarkets, particularly in large urban centres, are playing a major role in acting as catalysts and getting access to technology points as has happened in many countries.
I earlier pointed to the issue of mechanised harvesting which needs to be very carefully considered and appropriate actions implemented. Hasty introduction of machines replacing millions of agricultural manual labourers at one stroke will create more social problems and unrest than solving them.
Even within the present food system, there are high nutritional imbalances. Stunting, underweight, wasting, micronutrient deficiency are still high and fears are palpable that the pandemic may create more of wasting, jeopardising productivity in the future economy and thus curtailing the growth rate.
One very big challenge is climate change. Several things may happen. Without going into the details, the output of practically all crops may fall. So may that of fish, milk from cattle and poultry because of life cycle changes due to temperature rise. Reproductive capacity of cattle may fall. On top of all these, the disasters related to climate may increase both in frequency and severity.
Note particularly that many of the problems have a lot to do with water – either infrequent rainfall or heavy ones, severe and more frequent flooding, cyclones and storm surges (more severe than now), groundwater shortages due to recharge problems caused by lower rainfall and droughts and uncertain cross-border surface water flows due to both regional water shortages as well as unresolved transboundary problems. The outcome of all these, unless appropriate adaptation policies are undertaken and implemented, will be major falls in output of food, creating a highly food and nutrition insecure situation. If that happens, many of the gains we expect from economic growth will be hard to realise.
The solutions to these problems have to be sought within Bangladesh’s context. For conservation of irrigation water in agriculture, technology and economic incentive systems already exist as pointed out earlier. On the other hand, we must monitor seriously how things are changing in terms of crop and animal life cycles (phenological changes) so that either new resilient varieties can evolve or present ones which are less climate-sensitive are identified and popularised through incentives, technology and financing.
All these will mean creation and development of a knowledge base through a rigorous research system as well as through global support We know that the government is in the process of updating its climate change strategy as well as preparing a National Adaptation Plan. Both need to give adequate and serious attention to the development of a science-based, farmer-friendly agricultural and food system.
Concluding Remarks
We have tried to review here the past five decades of agricultural and food system in the country. While substantial gains have been made, major risks are there for these to be largely undone. Some of these are due to lack of a proper system of monitoring and information collection and analysis to more clearly determine the present situation and its changes over time. This is compounded by an archaic supply chain and marketing system including marketing and price support mechanism by the government which is quite unfair to the farmers providing limited incentives, if at all, to continue with farming. Others are due to the natural context within which the system works. The consequences are low income for farmers as well as food and nutrition insecurity for a very large group of people. On top of all these are the inefficiency in use of resources like water and generally low productivity. The weaknesses of the system became vivid when the pandemic emerged and it may take quite some time for the system to revive, if at all.
The future challenges are many, not the least of all is climate change, which may create a very difficult situation for the agricultural and food system. If agriculture has to be the exit strategy from the pandemic and become the base for a future prosperous Bangladesh, then science, technology and governance all will have to come together and create a system of fairness for farmers.
M. Asaduzzaman is former Research Director, BIDS
A Bengali version of the article was published earlier in the Daily Bonik Barta.