Afp, Brussels

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W ITH Prime Minister Boris Johnson ahead in the polls, Brussels expects Britain to exit the EU on January 31 as he has promised.

On Friday, one day after Britain’s election, EU leaders meeting in Brussels will discuss their priorities in trade talks after the divorce.

Will Johnson be able to reach a quickly comprehensive deal to preserve cross-Channel trade -- or will he be forced to ask for an extension to the post-Brexit transition period? - Fast or slow? - Johnson maintains he will strike a new trade deal with the EU by the end of a planned transition period at the end of 2020, and will not take the option of asking Brussels for extra time.

Experts widely agree that it will take far longer to achieve a comprehensive trade deal worthy of a country destined to be one of the EU’s closest partners.

Despite Johnson’s assurances, trade deals do not just come off the shelf “oven-ready”, especially if Britain is looking for a vastly different relationship.

A fast deal would be “a very big ask” that would limit the ambition of the deal tremendously, Fabian Zuleeg, chief economist at the European Policy Centre, told AFP.

The British government will have to decide by July 1 if it wants to postpone the December 31 2020 deadline.

On that date, it could make a one time only request for either one or two years of extra time.

Without an extension, “maybe they can achieve something very basic that would give the UK very limited leverage on the tricky subjects like services, fisheries or Gibraltar for Spain,” Zuleeg said.

As a matter of reference, other EU trade talks have dragged on much longer from the launch of talks to implementation: Canada deal - 8.5 years Japan: 6.5 years Singapore: 9 years Vietnam: 7 years so far Mercosur:20 years so far - What does six months get you? - To sign a deal by the end of 2020, negotiators will have to wrap up a provisional deal in about six months, leaving time for translation, legal clarification -- known as “scrubbing” -- and ratification.

Given the tight timeline, Zuleeg says the UK would either have to accept major concessions on the key issues, or accept standard third-country status to win a deal.

Slashing tariffs will probably be achievable, but that would leave no time for the UK to negotiate on other topics, and Britain would be pressed to accept EU terms.

France and the Netherlands are highly doubtful the deal can meet the one year deadline and insist that the Europeans should not be rushed by Johnson.

- The return of ‘no deal’ - If Johnson refuses to extend the negotiation period, a no-deal Brexit will loom once again, with Britain in danger of an abrupt cut in trade ties with Europe, rocking its economy.

“The default position once talks start is no-deal and third country status,” said Zuleeg, and that is much more dangerous for the UK, he added.

As a third country, Britain would immediately have trade terms set by the World Trade Organization.

Tariffs on key products would be high, ruining for example the business arithmetic for the UK production of cars and other industrial goods that depend on parts from overseas.

Entry points into the UK would be choked up with border guards forced to implement checks and fill out paperwork.

- Finding EU mandate - Whatever the result of the vote, the draft conclusions of the upcoming summit, seen by AFP, emphasise that EU leaders will ask Brussels to prepare a trade deal mandate as soon as possible.