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Rise in sea level may reduce 24pc cropland by 2045 A report of fisheries ministry and WB finds

Star Business Report

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Bangladesh’s agriculture sector is under threat from climate change, as the sea level rise may reduce availability of cropland by 24 percent in coastal divisions across growing seasons by 2045, a new report said yesterday.

“With two-thirds of the country at an elevation of less than 5 metres, Bangladesh is highly exposed to rising sea-levels, particularly the southern region. Rising sea-levels and salinisation are already being felt across coastal areas,” according to the Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP) Bangladesh.

The report, jointly prepared by the fisheries and livestock ministry and the World Bank, was launched at an event at the Krishibid Institution Bangladesh in Dhaka.

The CSAIP has been prepared to address the impacts of climate change on agriculture and prioritise investments to improve productivity, resilience and mitigation in the agriculture sector.

At the event, a $500 million Livestock and Dairy Development Project (LDDP) was rolled out to improve livestock and dairy production as well as to ensure better market access for two million farmers and small and medium-scale entrepreneurs.

The WB said the LDDP is the largest livestock development project in its portfolio and the project would help stimulate private sector investment and the development of livestock value chains in Bangladesh.

According to the CSAIP, soil salinity has affected 62 percent of coastal land and salinity intrusion is predicted to advance 8kms north by 2030, reducing land availability for farming.

Apart from this, rising temperature will negatively impact yields of two main crops -- aman and boro rice -- and high water stress can lead to rice yield losses as high as 70 percent, the report said.

Bangladesh’s agricultural productivity growth has been among the highest in the world and supported around 87 percent of the country’s rural households.

“Climate change and sea-level rise pose a serious threat to Bangladesh’s impressive growth in agricultural productivity,” the WB said.

It said the agriculture sector is projected to stagnate under the business as usual scenario, and key national production targets by 2040 are likely to be missed unless action is taken.

“Due to sea-level rise and population growth, self-sufficiency targets for 2040 can be met only for rice and tubers,” the report said, adding that greenhouse gas emissions were expected to rise by 2 percent between 2015 and 2040.

In addition, water consumption will increase by 0.8-1.7 million litres per year exacerbating water scarcity, which in some areas will become even worse under climate change.

The report said production of non-rice crops will fall short of government targets by 56 percent under the business as usual scenario.